Rural Ireland Thinks poll: More to do for Fianna Fáil to win votes in rural Ireland
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Fianna Fáil has long known it has "work to do" to gain seats in Dublin, but the 's poll shows a party that is also losing support among its rural base.
Taoiseach Simon Harris, just five months in the job, is now also a more popular party leader than Micheál Martin among those living in rural Ireland, another indication that Fianna Fáil has ground to make up.
With overall support for Fine Gael on 27%, ahead of Fianna Fáil on 22% and Sinn Féin on 18%, Harris will come under even greater pressure to cut loose after the budget and call a general election before Christmas.
22%
27%
18%
INDEPENDENTS
20%
Figures exclude those who said they didn’t intend to vote in the next general election and those who declined to reveal their current preference.
November 15 is the date that has been spoken about for some months now, and an election scenario that Fine Gael backbenchers and ministers were strongly advocating for at the party's think-in last week.
Others have suggested that delaying an election beyond November could quickly put a halt to the energy and momentum behind Harris as this is now the target which both candidates and their teams of volunteers are aiming for. Asking grassroots party members, who have spent much of the summer out canvassing and leaflet-dropping, to continue through the dark winter months would be a change of the goalposts that no one wants.
Harris himself has already taken to the rubber-chicken circuit, showing up everywhere from the Tinahely Agricultural Show; to the Glenties Summer School; the Fleadh; and Day and Night music festival; as well as attending multiple sporting events from the All-Ireland finals to the Olympics.
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His summer tour across the highways and byways of Ireland appears to have paid dividends among rural voters and Harris is now the most popular political figurehead.
When asked to rate the performance of various political leaders, 36% of those surveyed awarded the Taoiseach a mark of at least eight out of 10. That compared to 28% for the Tánaiste Micheál Martin, and 10% for Mary Lou McDonald.
This will represent a blow for the Sinn Féin leader, whose party has plummeted from a high of 37% national support back in October 2022. But her own standing and that of her party in our poll is reflective of a downward trend over the past 12 months. Sinn Féin also came in on 18% in a poll published by the last weekend.
The decline of Sinn Féin is seen as another reason among Government TDs to go to the polls this year and not next.
Harris has been sticking to the line that he will see out this Government's full term. But full term is an obscure enough deadline and can be interpreted in more ways than simply the spring of 2025.
Many in the Coalition ranks believe that once a budget is passed in two weeks' time, the Government will, in effect, have seen out its mandate and can go to the country.
Speaking on radio on Sunday, Public Expenditure Minister Paschal Donohoe, one of the two men who will be responsible for delivering this Coalition's final budget, insisted that the election will happen next year.
“I know when an election is called, it is the first point at which many of our voters correctly engage with the decision on what the next government will be, and their opinions are well capable of changing,” he said, adding that his focus is on the budget, which is to be announced on October 1.
While Fine Gael is charging ahead, the real unknown is the Independents, a motley grouping of candidates of every political hue who will platforming on diverse policies. They now hold 20% support amongst farmers and those living in rural areas.
It must be stated that this figure, it can be assumed, includes Independent Ireland, the right-wing political party formed last year by Michael Collins and Richard O'Donoghue, who are still trying to sell themselves as Independent while officially coming under the umbrella of a party.
But the rise of Independents, in whatever guise, does mean that in many constituencies, especially those which have seen significant changes due to the boundary redraw, the outcome is far from predictable.
Our face-to-face poll does indicate that both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin will suffer from an Independent surge in rural areas.
With the clock now ticking down to a general election, Tánaiste Micheál Martin will have to cover significant ground to ensure his party's traditionally strong supporter base is not eroded.
Fianna Fáil emerged as the largest party of local government in June's elections claiming 248 seats, with Fine Gael winning 245, and Sinn Féin trailing on 102 seats.
But there can be a considerable difference in voting patterns between local ballots and a general election, which was evident when Sinn Féin hemorrhaged seats in the 2019 council elections and then went on to win a landmark 37 Dáil seats less than a year later.
Despite the number of local seats claimed, there were disappointments in Dublin for Fianna Fáil and Martin admitted that the party would have to reflect on the poor performance in the capital.
“We certainly have work to do in Dublin,” Martin said after June's elections.
This evaluation may now have to extend beyond the Pale.
All parties are acutely aware of the importance of the rural vote, none more so than Martin, who last year got off an overnight flight back from the UN in New York and travelled down to the Ploughing Championships in Co Laois.
This week, Martin has scheduled two days at the agricultural event and will be there to speak to rural voters on Wednesday as well as Thursday, when Housing Minister Darragh O'Brien will deputise for him in the Dáil.
The Greens have always evoked strong opinions among the agricultural community and only get a mention in this column reflecting their standing on 1%. Overall party support for the Social Democrats and Labour is lying at 3%.
As an historic coalition between the two Civil War parties comes to an end, it is clear Harris and Martin are now more than open to another term in power together, which could be supported by one of the smaller parties or a huddle of Independents.
But the number of seats each of the two parties win will determine the set-up of any new administration and will be a crucial bargaining chip in the discussions for ministerial positions and a rotating Taoiseach.
As it stands, Harris is going into the next general election, and perhaps into another term in office, on a better footing.