Rural Ireland Thinks poll: Doubts grow over McDonald leadership as Sinn Féin support slips
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There is now a strong belief among many voters that Mary Lou McDonald has damaged Sinn Féin's chances of forming the next Government, an exclusive rural poll shows.
The latest opinion poll reveals that Sinn Féin support has fallen to 18% among farmers and those living in rural Ireland.
This compares to Fine Gael on 27%, now the most popular party, and Taoiseach Simon Harris the top-rated leader, among rural voters.
22%
27%
18%
INDEPENDENTS
20%
Figures exclude those who said they didn’t intend to vote in the next general election and those who declined to reveal their current preference.
Sinn Féin support is down from a similar poll of rural dwellers carried out ahead of the local and European elections when the party was on 21% and tallies with a separate national survey published in the which also puts Sinn Féin on 18%.
This will represent a blow for the Sinn Féin leader, whose party has plummeted from a high of 37% national support back in October 2022.
Questions have also been raised over Ms McDonald's leadership.
When asked directly about her performance at the helm, 43% of respondents to the Irish Examiner/Ipsos in-person poll, said they feel Mary Lou McDonald has damaged the party's chances of forming the next Government, with just 21% disagreeing.
When this is isolated to Sinn Féin supporters, almost one third (28%) say she has been damaging to the prospect of entering power after the next election.
A third of those who intend to vote for the party in the next election believe that she should step aside as leader.
Almost half of those who previously voted for Sinn Féin (45%) feel she has damaged her party, and just 51% of them would retain her as leader.
Privately, members have been critical of Ms McDonald and the level of contact she has with both politicians and regular members. Others have pointed the blame at the team around her and the broader party management.
“People talk about leadership and some officials not listening and not having their finger on the pulse — is that Mary Lou or is that others in HQ? I don’t know,” one member told the in the wake of June's disappointing elections.
A review of party policy and an assessment of strategy was carried out over the summer after being announced by Ms McDonald following the local and European elections.
As part of this, meetings were held at regional and local level, with some politicians and grassroots members saying that those at the top of the party did not listen to what was being said on the ground ahead of the most recent elections.
Some members have also been critical of the fact that Sinn Féin is now trying to be “all things to all men” stressing that the party should go back to its core policy areas.
One elected member suggested that the Sinn Féin party has changed significantly since they joined and now does not reflect many of the views of the grassroots.
The latest poll shows that if Ms McDonald were to step down, the party's finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty is seen as a more attractive candidate to take over at the helm than Northern Ireland First Minister Michelle O’Neill.
When asked, 33% feel that Ms O’Neill would make a more effective leader of Sinn Féin, and 34% would favour Mr Doherty.
Mr Doherty has more support among those over the age of 65, with 43% stating he would make a more effective leader. On the other hand, Ms O'Neill is more popular among women.
However, Mr Doherty elicits slightly greater opposition at 20% compared to just 15% opposed to Michelle O’Neill.
The poll was conducted by means of face-to-face, in-home interviewing between August 14-25, 2024, across 50 randomly chosen sampling locations. The sample size was 500 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.