As he turned to walk away, a few of his colleagues’ hands reached out to comfort him. In that instant, everything changed for the leading lights in Fine Gael.

The future rushed to meet them, with the past, in the person of Varadkar, already en route to history. You could nearly hear the questions bouncing around in their heads as they gathered around the departing leader to escort him back into the building. Who will stand? Where do I stand? Should I run? Who should I back? What about me? Leo who?

Before burying the king, it is customary to praise him, or at least appraise him. 

Leo Varadkar was a new kind of politician when he arrived on the national scene in the 2007 general election as a fresh-faced 28-year-old. He had a reputation as being a right-wing firebrand and he didn’t stand on convention. An early target of his was Bertie Ahern. A few months after he resigned as taoiseach, Ahern gave evidence to the planning tribunal in which he said he had won some of his contested monies on gambling. Most of the body politic sniggered. Leo lashed out.

“The former taoiseach has gone to the tribunal and essentially given the John Gilligan defence — that he won the money on the horses. This is a defence for drug dealers and pimps and not the kind of thing that should be tolerated in a former taoiseach and member of this house,” he said. 

“We do nothing, we wash our hands and say it is a matter for the tribunal. There is no system of accountability or ethics and we ask ourselves why people have such a low opinion of politicians.”

Even his party colleagues looked to the floor when that was delivered. A consensus emerged that the young fella would want to get a hold of himself or he wouldn’t be around for too long.

Varadkar kept his unique style  

Over the course of his career he matured but never lost his unique style. 

In 2014, he broke with government convention to back Sergeant Maurice McCabe who was being publicly thrashed by the garda commissioner. Martin Callinan said the actions of McCabe and his former colleague John Wilson were “disgusting”. Varadkar said the word he would use was “distinguished”. His actions on that matter suggested a politician who did what was right rather than what was expected of him.

In 2015, a few months ahead of the marriage equality referendum he announced that he was gay. He won plaudits for his bravery and the declaration most likely fed into the referendum result.

The forthright and candid approach didn’t survive elevation to the party leadership. But he did show his ability to lead on issues like Brexit and particularly during the early phases of the pandemic when he oversaw a caretaker government. Had an election fallen in the months after the first lockdown in March 2020 rather than two months before its inception, Varadkar would probably have done very well.

Right-wing firebrand persona faded

Over the course of his leadership, the firebrand right-winger was put to bed. Arguably, Fine Gael would, in European terms, currently be categorised as a centrist party, swinging left or right depending on the day of the week.

Leo Varadkar’s major failing was his inability to do what party colleagues and members had elected him for. 

He was not a vote magnet.  The 2020 general election was a big letdown in that respect.

Succession 

In his resignation speech, he outlined his belief that a new leader would be better placed to bring his party back to government: 

“After seven years in office, I don’t feel I’m the best person for that job anymore.” 

But who is? 

Among the early frontrunners has to be Simon Harris and Pascal Donohoe.

The former, at 37, is barely out of short trousers in terms of the average political demographic. He’s a year younger than Varadkar was when he took over in 2017. Harris would present a new, fresh-faced image in a party that has looked jaded. He might connect with voters beyond the base, and he comes across as having the personal energy of a Duracell bunny.

Donohoe is the safe pair of hands. He has demonstrated himself to be highly capable and also has buckets of the common touch. Whether he has the X-factor that is demanded of today’s leaders is another matter but maybe the electorate would prefer plain old-fashioned competence.

Compromise candidate 

Another possibility doing the rounds is a compromise candidate, somebody like Heather Humphreys. The Minister for Social Protection hails from a border county and, importantly, she is a woman. Her status has grown over the last year or so as she has shown herself to be highly competent and on top of her brief. Her other attribute from a party point of view is she can fairly give it welly when she gets stuck into Sinn Féin.

Whether or not she might emerge as a consensus candidate will become clear over the coming days.

Whomever takes up the mantle, the task ahead is going to be difficult. 

Change is inevitable now

Change is the buzzword in elections these days, the term itself having far more impact than what exactly it might mean in particular circumstances.

After 13 years in power, Fine Gael needs to present the electorate with a definable reason to vote for the party. Its stewardship of the economy has been solid, but eaten bread is long forgotten. The party’s record on housing in particular has been so poor that society in general will be playing catch-up for a long time to come before there is a full recovery.

An obvious direction for the party is to move to the right, back to Fine Gael roots of traditional values, law and order, taking care of Leo’s erstwhile pals, the people who get up early in the morning.

Will FG turn further right?

Some conservative voices have suggested that the recent referendum results highlight a big gaping hole in the electorate that can be found on the centre right. 

That remains to be seen. 

Shifting the dial right now would be heavy with risks for cohesion in the current government but Fine Gael needs something new, and that will require more than a fresh face.

Leo Varadkar was aware of all this. It undoubtedly fed into his decision to go. Should his successor pull a few irons from the fire and fare better in the election than the polls suggest, then his departure will have been a genuine parting gift to the organisation he has served since his teenage years.