But really, the writing had been on the wall for some time.

The signs were there

Perhaps the media should have read more into the private gathering of around 30 people in Blair House, opposite the White House, that he held on Friday night.

Among those in attendance at the casual event, which included wine and a buffet, were his partner Matt Barrett, sister, friends and his most-trusted political team, many of whom have been with him since his days as transport minister.

A swansong party for a leader on the way out.

In Boston, Varadkar had privately indicated that he would have loved to have seen the city as a regular tourist, yet another nod that he was thinking of life outside the Taoiseach's bubble, where your movements are tightly controlled and scheduled.

"We give it everything until we can’t anymore and then we have to move on," Varadkar said as his voice cracked during parts of resignation speech.

The emotion took many of his party colleagues by surprise.

When one TD, who had been among the Taoiseach's key allies over the years, approached him in the Dáil out of pure concern, a baffled Varadkar asked him had he not picked up on the numerous hints that had been dropped in recent months?

Of course, many in the party had noticed that Varadkar had been checked out for some time, but no one expected the departure would be so immediate — and certainly not in the run in to local and European elections.

Hindsight is great and perhaps more should have been read into the response given when Varadkar was asked on Sunday if this would be his last trip to the White House as Taoiseach: "Look, I don't know. You're asking me two questions there — when is the election and are we going to be able to form a government afterwards and all those things are yet to be determined."

As far back as 2015, Varadkar had admitted that he wouldn't be in politics for life and having reached the top office, not once but twice, he now bows out on his own terms.

Impending announcement

The first signs that something extraordinary was brewing was when Leo Varadkar's innermost circle were spotted in the Dáil canteen at around 9am on Wednesday, not exactly a regular occurrence.

Most politicians only became aware of an imminent "significant announcement" after a media notice was sent out stating that the Taoiseach would be outside Government Buildings after the weekly Cabinet meeting.

By 11am, with the ministerial meeting still ongoing, the halls of Leinster House were in full gossip overdrive, with Government backbenchers, opposition TDs, and journalists all mingling around in the hope of finding out details of the imminent "significant announcement".

Rumours and speculation

Was Paschal Donohoe, who has been rumoured for a list of positions — including, most recently, the top job in the IMF — leaving? Perhaps Simon Coveney was the one who would be stepping aside?

There were murmurs of a heave, but everyone who might be behind such a move was swarming around the Dáil trying to seek out the inside track.

It couldn't be a snap election? Surely he'd announce that in the Dáil?

Down in the Leinster House basement, two Fine Gael members at a committee hearing leaned over to each other, sharing a phone screen and confused expressions.

'Caught on the hop'

"We were all caught on the hop," one party senator later admitted.

"Not a whisper," a Former Fine Gael minister claimed when pressed on the Dáil steps about what he might know.

Arriving at the conclusion that it had to be an announcement from Leo Varadkar himself, one senior Fine Gael member asked who might be in the 'donut' behind the party leader as a show of support.

Having lost many of his famous five-aside group — Pat Deering failed to be re-elected in 2020, Eoghan Murphy bowed out of politics early in the term, and Brendan Griffin last year announced that he won't be running again — the Taoiseach cut a lonely figure on the steps of Government buildings, surrounded only by those who will be now looking to fill his seat.

"It's almost Shakespearean," one Fine Gael TD said.

Later in the day, some who had togged out on the team that worked to oust Enda Kenny, including Jim Daly and Paul Connaughton, were seen around Leinster House, perhaps wanting to witness the final act.

By the time Varadkar appeared on the steps of Government Buildings, speculation had filtered out and reached the lecture halls of Trinity College. Having seen the rumours on social media, four law students had made a mad dash to witness the political spectacle.

"We missed it, we went to the wrong gate," said one of the four young women, who were crouching around an iPhone watching back the exit speech outside the Natural History Museum.

Resignation spells succession

As politicians digested the news, the focus quickly turned to succession.

Interestingly it was Paschal Donohoe and Heather Humphreys who provided a supportive pat on the back to their departing leader as he made his way back up the steps and into Government Buildings. Simon Harris also looked earnestly on.

Simon Coveney was quick to rule himself out, stating that he had had his chance back in 2017. But Helen McEntee, Humphreys, and Donohoe were remaining tight-lipped last night.

By 6pm, most people were confidently predicting Harris as the next leader of Fine Gael.

Pointing to the Higher Education Minister, one member of the Fine Gael Executive Council noted that it is "all done and dusted", apart from posturing that will be more about wrangling for Cabinet positions than any real leadership threat.

"Unassailable," was how one Fine Gael minister privately described Harris' position.