Donal Lenihan: Ireland must be deadly, daring and disciplined against Fiji. Here's why 

It isn’t the number of penalties per se that sends the alarm bells ringing - South Africa conceded 11 and 14 respectively along with a yellow card in each in victory over Scotland and England - it’s what the opposition achieve from those opportunities.

It says everything about the areas of the field where Ireland have been conceding penalties that, between them, New Zealand and Argentina racked up 30 points from 10 penalty kicks at goal. The 18 point tally by Duncan McKenzie from his six kicks at goal ultimately proved more than enough to win that game.

Discipline apart, another area requiring improvement is Ireland’s attack shape. When Ireland were stressing the best of defences over the last few seasons, it was the speed of recycle off the ruck, coupled with the multiple options available to the first receiver, from the first and second lines of attack, that stressed opposition cover. That coupled with the ability of the passer, be it a back or forward, to pick the right option for the pass at the last moment. Ireland’s attacking shape was so smooth it regularly forced the defender to gamble on where the pass was going. This left holes that Ireland were able to exploit.

Hence, in order to improve in attack, the first area Ireland must get right is the breakdown and their decision-making in resourcing it in order to recycle the ball in three seconds or under. The challenge here is that Fiji not only competed ferociously at every breakdown in their win over Wales, they always seemed to have someone posing a jackal threat.

If Ireland succeed in generating quicker ball than they have recently, one of Prendergast’s biggest strengths is his ability to take the ball flat to the line and delay his pass to the last second. The confusion that causes for the opposition is huge.

Saying that, Fiji will target Ireland’s rookie No 10 through the massive physicality of Josua Tuisova and Waisale Nayacalevu in the midfield. Their presence alone played a big part in Farrell pairing Aki and Henshaw together, with Aki tasked with offering a layer of defensive protection for Prendergast.

The final area requiring improvement is the line out. It’s key that the caller takes the early pressure off McCarthy early on until he finds his feet. Having Izuchukwu at the tail as an additional target should also lead to more valuable attacking opportunities - Ireland scored two tries against Argentina from this source - off the tail once the get a foothold in the Fijian twenty two.

With the adverse weather conditions likely to have a far greater impact on the visitors, Ireland have the perfect opportunity to mark the arrival of the new caps with a victory, but also lay a marker before the ever improving Wallabies arrive.

Fijian transformation.

If proof was needed as to the individual player talent coursing through Fijian rugby, it arrived when Sevens rugby was elevated to Olympics status. Few were surprised when Fiji won the gold medal, the country’s first in any event, in Rio de Janeiro in 2016. The entire country went crazy with the Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama announcing a public holiday.

Not only did they retain the gold at the Tokyo games in 2020 but would have made it a hat trick of triumphs but for the genius of Antoine Dupont who inspired France off the bench in the 2024 final, relegating the Fijians to the silver medal at the Paris Olympics. For a country with a population of around 900,000 that’s a remarkable achievement.

The challenge for Fijian Rugby has centered on creating a workable professional structure that would enable them maximise that innate Sevens pace and power in the full version of the sport. Finally through the presence of the Fijian Drua, a fully professional squad operating in Super Rugby against the top sides from New Zealand and Australia since 2022, that professional element is now being catered for.

Couple that with the generous sprinkling of talented players plying their trade in Europe - eight of the current tourists perform on a regular basis in the French Top 14 with another four in the Gallagher Premiership - they have a squad capable of competing with the Tier 1 nations.

For evidence of that look back to last year's World Cup when Fiji came within a whisker of reaching the semi final, having beating Eddie Jones’s Wallabies 22-15 at the pool stage, before losing 30-24 to England in the quarter final. With 21of that World Cup squad reunited in the current tour party, the 19-24 win over Wales in Cardiff two weeks ago was not unexpected.

While rotating their squad heavily against Spain in Madrid last week, the tourists were pushed all the way before winning 19-33. Those changes were made with Ireland in mind and the desire of their experienced coach Mick Byrne to be fresh for a real cut at the Aviva Stadium.

The side defeated 57-17 by Scotland on the opening weekend of November action was much weakened given it took place outside the official test window. Saturday's selection represents Fiji’s strongest combination with the exception of the outstanding Semi Radradra who remains suspended having received a three week ban for his red card against Wales. Fiji are ready for this.

Big selection calls.

Despite the post-match rumblings, the sense of contentment I articulated in my column on Wednesday after the narrow win over Argentina was reflective of the bench impact made by debutants Sam Prendergast and Thomas Clarkson along with Jamie Osborne on his third appearance.

Putting myself in Farrell’s shoes, I had no hesitation in recommending that he start Prendergast against Fiji today, which is exactly what he did with the experience of Bundee Aki and Robbie Henshaw outside him with Craig Casey operating on his inside.

The fact that Ireland are performing four weekends in a row means that a degree of rotation was always going to come into play in this game but, given the quality of performance the Fijians have been delivering over the last 14 months, it’s clear that too much change could well leave a side, already struggling to find top gear, slightly vulnerable.

Then again, as a head coach, you don’t get that many opportunities to take a glimpse into the future. That’s what this game is ultimately about and with an ever-improving Wallaby side arriving in Dublin next weekend this is Farrell’s last opportunity to expose some of the next generation before he departs on Lions duty. I think Saturday's combination strikes a very good balance.

While anticipating the change at No 10, I applaud Farrell in his decision to award a further two new caps in this window with the promotion of Cormac Izuchukwu and Gus McCarthy up front.

Izuchukwu has been on the periphery for a while, touring South Africa last summer without being capped. He falls into the new hybrid role of lock/blindside line out ball winner that have become so valuable in the modern game. With Ryan Baird out injured and Tadhg Beirne back in the second row, the hugely athletic Ulster player has been handed a big chance.

Even more spectacular is to rise of Leinster academy hooker Gus McCarthy. A brilliant captain of the Irish U20 side only last season, McCarthy has grasped his opportunity on the back of injury to provincial colleagues Dan Sheehan and Ronan Kelleher. His basics are superb, a must for a hooker, but it’s been his ability to impress the coaches with his calmness and maturity that has earned the trust of Farrell.

While the most scrutiny will be focused on Prendergast, the other calls, including another cameo for tight head prop Thomas Clarkson off the bench and a potential first outing as a loose head for Tom O'Toole will also be worth following. All told, an exciting selection.