Maurice Brosnan: Musings as the summer road opens out before us
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ONLY one group in the 2023 All-Ireland round-robin saw three teams finish level. In Group 1, Kerry, Cork and Mayo all earned four points. Kerry advanced to a quarter-final thanks to a superior score difference, Cork and Mayo faced a gauntlet of three games in as many weeks. They both went from the final round to the preliminary quarter-finals to the last eight. They were both knocked out at that stage.
Run that group again with the new scoring difference rule. The new regulation restricts score difference to the games between the three or more teams who finished on the same number of points. Had that been applied, results against Louth would have been discarded. Mayo would have come out on top with Cork second and Kerry third.
On one level this is another trivial what-if. On another, it reinforces the valuable commodity that is first place. Kerry received a week’s rest before their Tyrone tie. Three of the four All-Ireland semi-finalists topped their group.
Of course, it is premature to draw any lasting lessons from last year. The sample size is too small. Everyone is still getting up to speed. It wasn’t until a thrilling final round filled with all kinds of late drama that supporters were truly captivated.
We do know provincial winners and runners-up are first and second seeds. We know Meath secured a fourth-seed berth by virtue of their Tailteann Cup victory. Down, Kildare, Sligo, Clare, Waterford and Offaly now know their only chance of avoiding the Tailteann Cup is by winning their upcoming semi-final.
For the rest, their all-Ireland dreams won’t die if they fail to secure a provincial title or top Sam Maguire series spot but it sure would make life that bit easier.
Last year’s championship recorded the lowest average number of goals, 1.8, in 11 years. However, the 2022 championship was the highest since 1989 at 2.8 per game. What will happen in 2024?
Of all the various proposals that emerge and promise salvation for Gaelic football, one of the most consistent is altering the value of a green flag.
The effectiveness of such a move is dubious. In the everlasting balance of risk and reward, an increased return would naturally lead to a defensive response. In reality, coaches would likely become even more conservative in order to ensure they are not hit with a hammer blow.
All that said, the debate is worthless if 2024 trends continue. So far there have been 46 goals across the opening rounds of the Gaelic football championship. It means a healthy return of over three goals per game. Is that skewed by mismatches? To a certain extent, sure, but across the opening nine games of the 2023 championship the average was also just 1.8.
Let us indulge in some optimistic speculating as to why the net has rattled more. Throughout last season, Armagh’s lack of cutting edge was a notable feature. They scored just six goals across eight matches. A natural progression was to build on their strong defence base and rediscover some cutting edge. Three goals in one half against Fermanagh is a good starting point.
Cork are in a similar position. They started their 2023 championship with a shock loss against Clare. That day John Cleary’s side only struck 13 points. They hit the same total against Limerick but supplemented it with three goals. For their sake and the game’s, let the evolution continue.
Sometimes it can feel like there is one prevailing conversation about the provincial championships. In the GAA, nothing is as unanimous. At best it can be said that there are two.
Publicly there is a clear lack of appetite and frustration at the blatant unfairness of it all. The league is a meritocracy while the provincials are unequal and unseeded. That contrast is even starker in the new SFC format. Stakeholders are increasingly voicing their displeasure at it.
“I think if you can get any sort of championship that is similar to the way the league is,” Dublin legend Ciarán Kilkenny declared this week. “I think we have a great format for the league. Everyone loves the league. Players love the league. Fans love the league. If we could get something like that and we could have that from a championship point of view, I think it would be great.”
Simultaneously, administrators have their own suggestions. Connacht Council chief executive John Prenty argued already this year that provincial winners should get a bye straight to the quarter-final and the groups would be made up of three rather than four. Leinster GAA secretary Brian Reynolds agreed with him. Diminish the provincial championships? They want to enhance them.
That means a steadfast refusal to see them reimagined as pre-season competitions. So, the current iteration cannot be separated from this ongoing conversation. More hammerings, the same expected winners will strengthen the resolve of the detractors. A surprise somewhere will be weaponised as ammunition to fire back.
Jim McGuinness’s Donegal comeback and Mickey Harte’s stunning move to Derry was the blockbuster news from the latest round of the managerial roundabout. Even still, an inter-county player transitioning straight into management is another sensational development. Everything Raymond Galligan has achieved so far with Cavan suggests it was a shrewd one too.
Elsewhere, several leading contenders hoped to build on some stability. Connacht is the only province where every single manager, outside of New York, stayed on. That sense of stability also brings an element of expectation. Can Davy Burke’s Roscommon finally consolidate their place at the top table? It is a squad easily capable of a quarter-final spot. Kevin McStay cannot afford for his Mayo challengers to fail at the first hurdle in Connacht again. Tony McEntee needs Sligo to stay competitive against Galway in order to continue their progression. Andy Moran has steadied his Leitrim ship after it capsized Stateside last year. Then there is the Tribesmen.
Pádraic Joyce is in his fifth year at the helm in his native county. Injuries have haunted them. At least 14 players missed significant league action: Liam Silke, Jack Glynn, Sean Kelly, Paul Kelly, Tomo Culhane, Billy Mannion, Shane Walsh, Damien Comer, Cillian McDaid, Patrick Kelly, Paul Conroy, Matthew Tierney, Robert Finnerty and Sam O’Neill.
And yet slowly the wheel is starting to turn. Sean Kelly, after an injury-blighted season, has successive games under his belt. Glynn, Silke and Finnerty all returned and showed form. The schedule has fallen kindly for them. A two-week break between the end of the league and victory over London and another two-week break between the Connacht semi-final and the decider, if they can successively navigate their way past Sligo in Markievicz Park.
Boil it down to the basic components and it means a severely hindered side are just two games away from their third provincial title in a row and a top seed in the Sam Maguire series. After the storm, the sun could shine again.
As Kerry and Dublin raced for the finish line last July, the blinking light on Jack O’Connor’s dashboard came in the form of David Clifford and his substandard conversion. He failed to land with his last five shots from play, one of which was called back for a converted free. Inevitably, the engine started to stall as a result.
The problem was that their racing power was fuelled by his genius. Dublin could account for Con O’Callaghan to be kept scoreless and still triumph. They had eight different scorers to Kerry’s five. Ultimately, Kerry’s king required more support.
Cillian Burke has emerged as a live option to slot into the front six. The Milltown/Castlemaine gun can score and create. Dublin have a new half-forward option of their own in Killian McGinnis. This theme applies to several outfits. Shane McGuigan and Ryan O’Donoghue’s credentials are long established, but no forward line can fire with one shooter.
McGuigan scored 2-52 in the 2023 SFC. Once again, he was Derry’s only representative in the top scorers of the 2024 league. Remarkably, Eoin McEvoy does feature in the top ten scorers from play after his superb final display saw him bring his overall total to 3-4. Derry’s defenders hit 8-13 combined. Up front, Lachlan Murray’s showing suggests he can step up to lighten the load on their All-Star’s shoulders.
Mayo need a similar partner to emerge for O’Donoghue. The best placed to do so is Tommy Conroy although a return of 0-1 from eight fixtures in 2024 will be a major cause for concern. Galway’s Cillian Ó Curraoin had an excellent campaign. Now the task is finding some chemistry with Shane Walsh and Damien Comer once they return. Armagh and Tyrone are spoiled with contenders. Leading the chasing pack is Darragh Canavan, who has already demonstrated his capability to join the three heavyweights of Clifford, O’Callaghan and McGuigan in the top tier.