Should you play with or against the wind in the first half?
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Here it comes: the hiss of zippers fastening, the rattle of umbrellas blustering. It is the height of Autumn in this country and that brings the promise of wind and rain. Everyone has to deal with it. Simple.
How do you prepare for it? That’s where it becomes complicated. The old adage was that if you win the toss, take the early advantage and play with the wind. Build up a lead. Know what you have to do in the second half. Conditions can change. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
And yet, there are still sceptics.
“I’d always be encouraging to go against it,” says former Carlow footballer Daniel St Ledger.
“The first ten minutes of most games can take time to settle. There can be a bit of nervous tension, fumbles and turnovers. I also think it is very clarifying. Take kickouts - if the wind is too strong, we know to drop off because they can bomb it 70 yards.
“Defensively we know to get numbers back, attack we know to work in through the hands. If you get in at half-time relatively in the game, I think that is a big psychological thing. For me playing with the wind can bring expectation, if we are not X scores up, it feels like a failure of a half. My take is to go against it, batten down the hatches and keep yourself in the game.”
It is one of those inevitable scenarios a management team will eventually face. David Power won an All-Ireland minor title and Munster senior title with his native Tipperary. He has certain grounds that he just associates with a consistent wind. Fraher Field and Wexford Park stand out. That ensures they can plan for it.
“In our management, we always talked about the different factors,” he says.
“If we had our strongest team out, we would go against it. If we had a team that we felt needed to be up at half-time, we go with the wind. It wouldn’t be one specific call.
“You’d have it covered in training. You run each scenario, this is how we set up with the wind and this is how we set up against it. It has to be well-planned and talked through.”
Gaelic football’s modern form means the wind is less of a factor now. Some outfits are actually suited to playing against it.
“It is less of an issue these days than it was 15 years ago because a lot of teams don’t change their transitional plan with or against it,” agrees St Ledger.
“Through-the-hands to a certain point, most teams do that regardless. Some teams fall into a trap, we are with the wind, we need to leave three or four up. Whenever another team is countering on you, it can be as big an issue as anything. But generally, there is less middle-third kicking regardless.”
Generating comprehensive data in this field is exceptionally difficult given the various factors involved. The strength of the wind can alter drastically, as can ball in play time. GAA Insights are a leading Gaelic football and hurling analysis provider. They track expected scores across the sport, measuring the likelihood of a shot becoming a score. Wind is factored into this process thanks to reports from Met Éireann.
One noticeable element from their analysis is that attacking into the wind does bring pressure.
“Because you are limited in the distance you can shoot from, defences can get much better setup,” explains co-founder Barry Cleary.
“So, there is much more pressure on the shot than there is normally. If that extra range is there, it can draw out more defenders. More predictability means more pressure too.”
Managers must contemplate each of these questions pre-match. Is your team able to deal with that pressure from the start? Why not run up a lead and challenge the other side to try and outdo it? What about the unsure goalkeeper, liable to slide drastically if they get off to a poor start with kickouts into a stiff breeze?
“And what about the free-taker?” asks Power. “ If he misses the first one or two… There are lads are out there who are gone for the game then.
“So, from that point of view, you want to be playing with the wind. I’d always be saying, if we are against it and you feel like you would be forcing it, work it short. It’s different if your confidence is up but give yourself the chance first.”
The game can change but the wind continues to blow uninterrupted. One of the suggestions by Jim Gavin’s Football Review Committee is to replace penalty shoot-outs with an “overtime showdown.” Each team will get at least one possession to decide the tie. The team that concedes the first score will have a kick-out and opportunity to equaliser or better their opponent’s score.
What happens when one team is playing with a significant wind?
“At least you are still playing (football),” argues Power. “Penalties I think are very harsh. At least the winning team did something together, worked a point or a goal, that would be better than penalties in my eyes. It’s the collective, you have a chance to stop the opposition and work a score.”
Even on that, there is a split. St Ledger is against it.
“You can’t let the weather determine a game like that. There is a vast difference between what you do over 60 or 70 minutes and going for a one-off score. People might not like it but if you are playing against the wind, it is about control, limiting the ball in play to 10 or 15 minutes, taking time over set-pieces and game manage. I know game manage isn’t the sexiest term in the GAA right now. But it is a reality in the conditions.
“I wouldn’t consider that idea to be fair. In a broader game, playing with or against it, teams have a choice.”