Hopes that Ireland might be awarded Belfast’s Uefa Euro 2028 matches are set to be dashed, despite political attempts to keep the games on the island of Ireland.
The Pitch understands that Uefa’s favoured position - long before official confirmation this week that Casement Park will not happen in time - is that the fixtures would go to the English FA.
The issue was due for discussion at a low-key Uefa gathering in the South of France this week, with the Football Association of Ireland still holding some hope of scooping up a number of those Belfast games.
At its AGM last weekend, the FAI said it would welcome any extra matches it could get for the Aviva Stadium.
“There is a conversation that will ensue about what happens to the games that are scheduled to take place in Northern Ireland,” acting chief executive David Courell said.
“I believe that our success in hosting the Europa League Final this year means we have proved our capability to deliver major events in this country.
“The Dublin Arena (Aviva Stadium) is there if Uefa, as tournament owners, decide to reallocate games. We would absolutely welcome the opportunity to host more.”
The Pitch revealed last July that Belfast was no longer a viable option as a host city for the shared UK and Ireland football tournament, something which IFA chief executive Patrick Nelson confirmed on Monday.
Political intervention by Tánaiste Micheál Martin and Minister for Sport Thomas Byrne followed this week, when they suggested Croke Park and SuperValu Páirc Uí Chaoimh might be options.
In reality - they’re not.
In July we reported that Páirc Uí Chaoimh was considering a bid for fixtures as soon as the Casement situation was made official, however no formal approach has been made to Uefa, with a lack of seating at the venue the key issue for Cork GAA.
The cost of putting other infrastructural mechanisms in place, including ‘Spidercam’ over-pitch cameras, as well as vast VIP hospitality areas for Uefa guests, are other challenges to overcome.
Jarlath Burns' comments Wednesday that the GAA has nominated Páirc Uí Chaoimh as an alternative venue for the competition look fanciful at best.
Croke Park will not enter a bid, having been part of the original process with the FAI, before being ruled out due to Uefa’s ‘one city-one venue’ order - London being an exception, where Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and Wembley will host games.
The FAI is the only federation of the three remaining, outside of England, to publicly declare it wants more games, with such a move not believed to be of interest for the Scottish or Welsh FAs.
Uefa has been making plans for England to soak up the extra matches as far back as early this year, when it had accepted that Casement Park was not happening.
The withdrawal of contractors - Heron Brothers and the Buckingham Group – last November confirmed for many observers that the project was doomed.
A myriad of political and financial issues finally obliterated Northern Ireland’s ambitions to host games, not least the more than doubling of costs to develop Casement Park, shooting up from €213m (£180m) to €473m (£400m).
Such increases were pinpointed this week by Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn, who confirmed that Westminster was unwilling to financially support such a risky project, which had soared so “dramatically”.
"The conclusion we came to was, even if you put a very large amount of money into it, there was a risk you would not complete the stadium in time for the Euros," he said on Monday.
Even if such a completion could have been achieved, the UK Government was unable to build a financial case for such investment, where analysis earlier this year showed that the economic impact for Belfast forecasted a direct return of £106m (€125m) from the competition.
Grant Thornton’s “prudent view” was that £52m (€61m) would be spent on accommodation and another £54m (€64m) on hospitality and retail through an estimated 150,000 fans, due to attend the five games.
The analysis forecasted that the entire tournament of 51 matches across the five nations works out at an economic impact of €3bn (£2.6bn), or total value of €302m (£255m) on a pro-rata basis for Northern Ireland – still short of overall cost.
In approximate terms, Westminster would have had to provide £280m towards the project, after commitments of €142.5m (£120m) were made by the GAA and governing administrations on both sides of the border.
The Irish Government had declared €50m, with €74m (£62.5m) coming through the Stormont executive and €17.8m (£15m) from the GAA.
The other key issue is that a timeline - moving from derelict site to a state-of-the-art tournament-ready stadium – was never realistic, particularly when it is required to be fully operational for test events by 2027.
As much speculation and some recrimination begins over Casement Park, a consistent theme emerging is political intransigence on both sides of the border.
Stormont Ministers failed to raise the issue during a high-level meeting with UK Chancellor Rachael Reeves last week, and some sources here are suggesting that the recent meeting between Taoiseach Simon Harris and UK PM Keir Starmer may have presented an opportunity lost.
As things stand, the only semi-realistic outside possibility, should Uefa change its position on flipping the games to England, would be to give the Aviva Stadium one more game.
With six fixtures already – four group matches, as well as a last-16 tie and quarter-final – due to take place over a three-week period, it is doubtful the stadium’s vulnerable turf would sustain another match, averaging a game every three days up to the semi-finals.
A final and deeply uncomfortable decision for Uefa and the remaining host countries – Ireland, England, Wales and Scotland – is when to officially rub out Northern Ireland’s role as co-host.
Friendlies at Windsor Park – which could at a stretch take 20,000 fans for matches - are being mooted for Belfast, but with no formal tournament hosting - Northern Ireland is now redundant as a co-host.
A sop for the Irish FA would be to grant Northern Ireland automatic qualification, but such a scenario would be quietly and forcefully resisted behind the scenes by the Dublin, Cardiff and Glasgow tournament partners unless there is similar dispensation for Ireland, Wales and Scotland.
At this stage, Uefa is telling us very little around England’s expected receipt of the five Casement Park games.
“Uefa has taken note of the UK Government’s position regarding Casement Park, which we will review together with the UK and Ireland 2028 partnership to discuss the implications for the host venue planning of the tournament,” it told The Pitch in a statement.
You might expect that the (perhaps) most powerful job in Irish sport can lead to all sorts of rumour.
Last Friday the name of Ian Flanagan, chief executive with Munster Rugby, entered the fray for the vacant position of CEO at the Football Association of Ireland.
Flanagan’s football pedigree is second to none, having been central to bringing DHL as a sponsorship partner to Manchester United, and as a commercial director with Leicester City when the club won the most extraordinary Premier League in history, in 2016.
He is one of a number of names believed to be on the shortlist, which FAI chairman Tony Keohane told The Pitch is still considering a number of individuals.
Sarah Keane of Swim Ireland may be a politically safe choice, although her board membership at the then Olympic Council of Ireland during Rio 2016 will not help.
The more compelling options might be Robert Watt – FAI board member and secretary general at the Department of Health — or perhaps Paul Cooke, FAI president and someone with a considerable business and football pedigree.
Current interim CEO David Courell remains a person of interest.
And what did Munster make of all of this speculation? “Munster Rugby have no knowledge of the matter and do not wish to comment.”