Paul Rouse: Why Census findings must make the GAA reconsider the traditions of county bounds 

For the first century of the history of the GAA, the population of the country usually fell and the story was one of persistent emigration. Sometimes that emigration was muted, often it was ruinous. 

The upshot was teams losing players to boats and planes and the enduring sense of clubs in perpetual struggle for survival.

More people living on the island now means more potential members for the GAA.

The devil of this sits in the detail, however. What matters is the nature of the population growth. And what the preliminary results show is that the population of the 26 counties on Sunday, 3 April, 2022 was 5,123,536 persons. This is the first time that the census has recorded a population of over 5 million people for these counties in more than 170 years. The overall increase since the last census in 2016 amounted to 361,671 persons, or some 8%.

The distribution of this increase was such that every county increased in population between 2016 and 2022.

The county which recorded the highest population growth since 2016 was Longford (+14%), with Meath second (13%) and Kildare and the Dublin region of Fingal joint third (11%).

The lowest rate of growth was the 5% achieved between 2016 and 2022 by Donegal, Kilkenny, Kerry and Tipperary.

What does this mean for the GAA’s clubs and counties?

It is obviously not a neat picture, but broadly speaking the bulk of the population growth is concentrated towards the east coast. The population of Dublin is now 1,450,701; in Cork it’s 581,231. Even Longford’s record population growth only takes it to 46,634.

That disparity in basic human resources between counties is absolutely stark. And it is unrealistic for it to allow for fair competition on a consistent basis. A small county may prosper in the short term, or in cycles, but it won’t do so consistently and certainly won’t do so in both hurling and football.

Projections are that the disparity in population will only increase. For example, in a report which Edgar Morgenroth wrote for the ESRI entitled Prospects for Irish Regions and Counties: Scenarios and Implications the population of the Republic of Ireland is estimated to grow by 1 million by 2040. This will see the creation of 500,000 new households, almost certainly focused on Dublin and its satellite counties. This projects that the share of population in the ‘Dublin and Mid-East region’ is expected to increase from 1.91 million in 2016 to 2.35 million in 2040.

When the rest of the census results are processed by the CSO and published next year, it will be fascinating to assess the age structure within counties. In the last census, the areas with the youngest average population were in Dublin and its surrounding counties. And those with the oldest average age were out west and down south.

This matters profoundly to the organisation of the GAA. It has already manifest itself in the difficulty that teams in rural areas have in finding players to field teams and the difficulty that clubs in Dublin have in finding fields for their players.

In general, the growth in urban areas – particularly in cities – underlines the imbalances in the GAA.

The population of Co. Galway is now up to 276,451 and of Co. Limerick is 205,444. The growth in the commuter counties of Kildare (246,977) and Meath (220,296) is a further aspect that cannot be ignored.

The is urbanisation and suburbanisation that cannot go unexamined by the GAA. To note the population imbalances and then to carry on regardless will not be enough. A want of planning rarely ends well for any institution, and it won’t end well for the GAA.

So what needs to be considered?

At its most basic, the county structure of the association is going to come under increasing pressure. 

There is no virtue in pretending that things can stay as they are. The basic question is: in what way will change be managed? And what is the vision of a competitive future that the GAA wishes to create?

This is a debate that in the past has been reduced to whether Dublin should be split in two or in three. But that doesn’t cut it as strategic vision. The issue is much broader than that.

It is true that there are many factors here that live well beyond the control of the GAA. For example, the potential to develop remote working hubs and other facilities that will allow for people to live away from Ireland’s cities is obviously a matter of public policy and wider socio-economic change. But, again, there are clear trends here towards urbanisation and demographic shifts that the GAA must grapple with if it is to prosper into the future.

A deep, evidence-based analysis must be undertaken – with everything placed on the table – as to whether the GAA’s basic premise of county-based competition is going to become increasingly absurd. This will involve leading a lot of sacred cows to the abattoir.

The great dilemma is that county loyalties are a fundamental engine that drives the GAA. How do you find a path to the future when one of your greatest strengths is also such a liability in terms of restructuring meaningful competition?

It is, of course, not just a question of the number of people living in a county but who those people are. Accordingly, the second issue that must be considered from the preliminary census results is that of inward migration. More than half of the increase in population includes an estimated net inward migration of 190,333 over the past six years.

All counties had an increase in net migration with the largest occurring in Dublin (+46,559), Cork (+20,892) and Meath (+14,921); and the lowest in Monaghan (+1,353), Kilkenny (+1,756) and Offaly (+2,003).

What are the GAA’s ambitions, aspirations, plans, funding commitments to recruit from this cohort of people?

This offers a unique challenge – and also a unique opportunity. There is no doubting that immigrants are welcome in GAA clubs; the team lists of more and more teams demonstrate this.

Indeed, the evidence of history is that the people who usually run teams or clubs ordinarily do not care where someone comes from and what they look like. The desire to win almost always trumps all. This means that talented migrant players will not just be included, but cherished. And even beyond winning, the very fact of fielding and competing demands openness.

But migrants remain significantly underrepresented in Gaelic games. How can this be changed?

The obvious recruitment point for children is through the education system. But, of course, the story of sport and exercise more broadly in the Irish educational system is not a happy one. Only 35% of primary pupils and 10% of post-primary pupils received the Department of Education’s recommended minimum minutes of physical education per week.

This is partly a matter of facilities. Naturally, it is in the poorest schools that PE facilities are ordinarily worst. Against that, there are schools where the students want for little in this area. We can dress this up anyway we want, but this is another example of the distorting impact of educational privilege.

Can the GAA find a way to fill this space? Again, what is the plan?

The full set of Census 2022 results will be published by the CSO in a series of launches between April and December of next year. These results will include targeted studies on subjects such as housing and commuting.

It will be fascinating to read those results in the context of their meaning for sporting organisations. In particular, the question in respect of engagement with voluntary organisations allowed for the checking of a box titled “A sporting organisation”.

When read in tandem with the results to questions around physical and mental health, ethnicity, educational attainment, profession and others, it offers the potential for deep insight into the nature of sport in Ireland.

Work is already underway for preparations for the next census in 2027; it would take very little to adapt the form to allow it to offer a formidable insight into sport and exercise (and, of course, health).

All of this is far removed from the glamour of match days, but it is no less essential for the future.

Paul Rouse is professor of history at University College Dublin.