Donal Lenihan: South Africa hold all the aces for Durban decider but Ireland won't go quietly
Brendan A After College Dark Moran/sportsfile Poses Ireland In Pic: Caelan Run Captain Northwood At An Portrait Durban Doris For Rugby Art: Captain's
Last week the tourists had to deal with the challenge of playing at 1,340 metres altitude. On our approach to Durban airport on Thursday, the pilot announced ground temperatures of 27C, not bad for the peak of winter. I’m not quite sure if the Irish players view that as a help or a hindrance.
Add in a rock-hard surface at Kings Park Stadium on Saturday and you’re reminded of what touring South Africa is all about. Just as well there isn’t a third test in Cape Town next weekend, given the monsoon conditions that forced the Ireland U20’s Junior World Cup game against Australia to be postponed there earlier in the week.
Entering last week’s first test in Pretoria, Ireland had a very impressive record of 25 wins from the previous 29 tests. That 86% wining ratio was tarnished however by losing to New Zealand at the quarter-final stage of the World Cup last October.
Since then, despite winning the 2024 Six Nations championship, Ireland have looked a little jaded.
That said, the consistency of delivery from this squad of players is really impressive. You have to go back to the 2021 Six Nations championship to find the last time Ireland lost back-to-back tests, a 21-16 loss to Wales in Cardiff and 13-15 defeat against France in Dublin.
At a time when Ireland are vulnerable due to the absence of key players in Hugo Keenan, Mack Hansen, Jamison Gibson-Park, Craig Casey, Iain Henderson and Dan Sheehan at the end of an exhausting season, they are now tasked with taking on the most experienced Springbok team in history with a combined total of 990 caps.
As expected Ronan Kelleher and Conor Murray step into the breach for the injured Sheehan and Casey, while Farrell has chosen to freshen up other key areas with the introduction of Garry Ringrose in midfield and by switching Tadhg Beirne to the side of the scrum at the expense of Peter O'Mahony which facilitates the inclusion of James Ryan in the second row.
Bundee Aki looked out on his feet at times in Pretoria after a monstrous season while Ringrose made a big impact when introduced off the bench. In benching the captain and releasing Beirne to the back row, Farrell is hoping for a bigger jackal threat at the breakdown without compromising line out while O'Mahony is being held in reserve. It will be fascinating to observe the impact of these adjustments.
The addition of world-renowned attack coach Tony Brown to the Springboks coaching setup may yet prove another inspired decision by Erasmus. His innovation and willingness to think outside the box has been crucial to winning back-to-back World Cups.
What other coach would risk going into a World Cup final with seven forwards including a hooker in Deon Fourie who hadn’t played in that position for a decade after transitioning to the back row, and just a single back in Willie Le Roux to navigate their way to success, having resisted the temptation to do so at the quarter and semi-final stages?
Erasmus bravely trusted Fourie to cover the role but must have squirmed internally when the Boks lost first-choice hooker Bongi Mbonambi after only three minutes in that decider against New Zealand.
The addition of Brown to the coaching team is another bold move by Erasmus who has never been shy to seek innovation from coaches outside of the country. Despite the fact the former All Black has barely set foot in the Springbok camp, his influence became apparent right from the outset of the opening test.
From the off and with Ireland prepared for direct running lines and explosive carries, the Springboks went wide on every occasion with an impressive variety of long accurate passes, interspersed with short tip-ons not normally associated with their hulking forwards. The reward was instantaneous with an excellent try from the electric Kurt-Lee Arendse.
RG Snyman has always had that skill set in his locker which makes him very difficult to defend against. Content for years to run through opponents, if the Springboks evolve to the point where their forwards can run around you or subtly put their big support runners into space, they will become even more difficult to defend against.
The stats from the opening test already serve to highlight a change in approach from the hosts with 16 offloads, 175 passes, appreciably up on recent times. If they keep showing that rate of progression they will become an even more difficult team to beat than the World Cup winning versions.
Brown has already said as much. "I think short term we want to attack a lot better than we have previously. My job is to create a style that these boys can play really, really well. The game changes so fast and my job is to try and find a competitive edge that keeps the Springboks at the top of the world”. Last week marked a decent start.
Apart from the scrum that resulted in a penalty try in the 77th minute, Ireland’s set piece coped admirably for the majority of the game with Andrew Porter putting renowned Springbok tight head Franz Malherbe under all kinds of pressure.
Winning a scrum penalty off the first engagement after Erasmus introduced his six forward behemoths en masse on 50 minutes was a huge moment. After Leinster’s scrum travails against the Bulls in the URC semi-final, Ireland’s solidity offered a huge psychological boost.
The Boks weren’t happy with the way Ireland closed the space on engagement however and have being highlighting this during the week. It will be interesting to see how Saturday's referee Karl Dickson interprets that. The line out functioned less smoothly but still provided a decent platform to attack from in the Springbok half.
The omission of O'Mahony from the outset, in what may yet prove his last overseas appearance after a stellar career, will compromise Ireland out of touch. Farrell will be hoping that loss will be compensated for in the contact area with a bigger unit starting up front.
Outside the set piece, Farrell was disappointed in the manner with which the South Africans managed to disrupt and suffocate the recycle at the breakdown. Once teams succeed in that area, Ireland’s attacking fluidity and ability to create line breaks sufferers immeasurably.
The inclusion of Kwagga Smith, an open side operating at No 8, for the retired Duane Vermeulen, and the return to top form of Siya Kolisi after the criticism thrown his way by his Racing 92 club, appeared to have spurred the Springbok skipper to deliver a big performance on his homecoming.
Ireland showed sufficient composure to ride out the difficult periods in the opening test and strike in the final quarter when many fancied them to fade on the back of a demanding season. Caelan Doris led the fight back with some superb foraging at the breakdown to turn the tide in Ireland’s favour.
The new skipper will need a big shift from the likes of Byrne, Josh van der Flier, Ryan and Kelleher in the contract area. If Ireland can find a way to generate quicker ball from the ruck, they will score tries. Even on the back foot last weekend they managed three.
Garry Ringrose made a big impact off the bench and his familiarity with Robbie Henshaw offers a slightly different dimension in the absence of Aki. As always much will depend on the ability of Jack Crowley and Conor Murray to keep the forwards on the front foot. The fact Ireland are back operating at sea level will help, especially having spend almost two weeks training at altitude.
Given the stoic resilience shown by this tight knit Irish squad over the last few seasons, I’d be surprised if they were to sign off on this demanding year without one massive effort. If they can improve their ball presentation, clean out and accuracy at the ruck, they have a chance to sign off with a massive scalp.
That said, with an unchanged matchday squad, a big performance and result already under their belt from Pretoria and another week under the influence of Brown’s attacking blueprint, the hosts hold all the aces.