Ronan O'Gara on Ireland v the Boks: If only games were played on paper or in the gym

I don’t understand the furore. Anyone with a modest understanding of Top 14 rugby understands that Montpellier scrum half Cobus Reinach is experienced, fast, versatile and his father was a 400m champion hurdler. People appear to have missed the key point here. The Springbok backs have such adaptability that they can afford to put just one  (versatile) replacement on the bench for Saturday. They have put this under the microscope with a scientific eye and are comfortable they have most eventualities behind the scrum covered. So they can go all-in up front.

They are sorted at nine obviously; if out-half Mannie Libbock gets hurt, they have Damien Willemse, with Cheslin Kolbe going to 15 and Reinach goes to the wing. If there is an injury at centre, Willemse pushes up to the centre, Kolbe to 15, Reinach again to the wing. Or they can go with Kwagga Smith to the wing – he will have repped there in training – a la France with Macalou. When you have a fast back row, he can easily defend or play on the wing.

Ireland’s selection off the bench will be from a 5-3 split between forwards and backs. Is it wrong? Is the Bok policy excessive? Neither. Management employ their resources as cleverly as possible to maximise flexibility and cover every eventuality.

In the Top 14, if you go with a 5-3 bench, it’s an anomaly. A 6-2 split is the norm, so what’s the big swing about a 7-1 when you have a Kwagga Smith or a Cobus Reinach or even a Dean Fourie. It’s two back rows and a back instead of three backs.

The next high-profile coach who selects seven forwards on the bench will be accused of apeing South Africa, but it’s a natural evolution; players are better now and crucially, more versatile.

The ace up Ireland’s sleeve is Robbie Henshaw. Leaving him out or not having him available is a prospect that doesn’t bear thinking about. The 5-3 works for Ireland because the forwards are incredibly fit, so five replacements to the pack is enough. You will replace the front row, plus make a second row and a back row change. But it’s crucial that Henshaw is one of the other three.

The rest is easily interpreted but there are little wrinkles that explain one of the reasons Andy Farrell and co have selected Jack Crowley over Ross Byrne.

Byrne was good against the Tongans last Saturday and in his own head might have felt he had put the back-up ten debate to bed. His presence, body language, kicking and line kicking were all making a statement.

But it would appear a hypothetical injury to Huge Keenan may have been a decisive factor in going for Crowley.

Robbie Henshaw off the bench covers wing and centre. Henshaw goes to 13 and Ringrose to the wing if Lowe or Hansen got injured. It would obviously be a like-for-like at 12-13, but I reckon if there is an injury to Hugo Keenan, it’s Jack Crowley going to full back.

That comes with a sharp intake of breath. Imagine ten minutes into the game Saturday night, Keenan goes down. It’s a big call to put Crowley at 15 against the world champions.

So in examining the respective benches, it’s as much about smarts as size. An injury at 9 for Ireland, Murray for Gibson Park; an injury at ten, Crowley for Sexton, injury at 12, Henshaw straight in, injury at 13, Henshaw straight in, injury on the wing, Ringrose switches over, Henshaw comes in.

The key one is the full-back, and with the Springbok emphasis on kicking, that position is absolutely crucial in the test match. Who’s best suited? Crowley is a better kicker, Henshaw is a better defender. Which are Ireland prioritising?

Putting a nine and ten on the bench is a non-negotiable right now. You need a back-up nine, because you can’t play Hugo Keenan, Garry Ringrose, James Lowe or Bundee Aki at scrum half; if Johnny Sexton gets injured, you need an orthodox ten, because the afore-mentioned are not at that test level and goal-kicking is fundamental to winning at this level. South Africa have four kickers in their starting XV, Ireland have one and a half, with due respect to Garry Ringrose. 

The comparison is easy: If Ireland were thinking about a 7-1 split that’s Conor Murray on the bench, and you are looking at trying to win a test match with Murray at ten for possibly more than an hour… Faf de Klerk kicks, Libbock and Willemse as well, plus Cheslin Kolbe kicks for Toulon. That's why they can go 7-1, or even 8-0 if they were of a mind.

And so back to Jack Crowley. If it was a 6-2 bench split, it would be Murray and Henshaw, so who is kicking their goals if there is an injury to Johnny after seven minutes?

The next question: what expertise can you NOT go without on the bench? That depends on your philosophy. What worked for La Rochelle in our first Champions Cup success over Leinster in Marseille was underpinned by the priority, or not, you put on goalkicking. Or do you envisage, as we did, winning the game by scoring tries?

Be it Sexton or Crowley, Ireland are taking the gift points in front of the posts at this World Cup but the fact they have scored 20 tries shows they are making good, smart decisions off offensive set plays and positions too.

Crowley is a smashing player and if Ireland are to win this World Cup, he is going to have a big role. From this weekend, Ireland essentially move into Grand Slam mode. South Africa, a one week break, Scotland, New Zealand or France, then Australia or England (or Fiji!), then a final against insert-as-appropriate.

The debate on who is supporting Sexton has continued for so long but it is finally in the here and now. What may be under-appreciated is there is an inner steel to Crowley, he has embraced every hurdle with relish, he has accepted his challenges, his failings, his learnings, all in a ruthless environment. And still we watch him from the edge of our seats because I am fully convinced there is a golden nugget there.

So if it all does come down to size, then South Africa probably win. Joe McCarthy has been the poster boy for a bigger-framed Ireland, but he’s not even involved this weekend. If it comes down to smarts, then Ireland have a great chance at the Stade de France.

The ball-in-play time will be hugely significant. That puts the squeeze on the players’ mental capacity to think. So, think high amount of ball in play, high tempo, high skill level, it’s advantage Ireland.

If it’s a stop start power game, advantage South Africa. Driving maul, scrum, error by Ireland (or even error by South Africa), they will scrum the life out of Ireland, squeeze life out of their legs, kill Ireland’s energy.

There are so many little sub plots.

To be fair to Hansen and Lowe, let’s just say that their Springbok equivalents, Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse are, at the very least, just as fast. The big add-ons to the Boks team from the last World Cup is some x factor. Damien Willemse came in for Willie Le Roux, and is a very similar player to La Rochelle’s UJ Seteuni – a brilliant rugby player who doesn’t have a set position. He can flit between 10, 12, 13, 15 even the wing. Now he is settled at full back, and can make rugby look very easy at times. But with lads who make it look too easy, there are a few errors as well, and I wonder how good his defensive positioning is.

Ireland will identify attacking kicking opportunities and look to stress Willemse and the two wings, but if they are in position and catch the ball, you could be under your posts within a few seconds. It’s risk and reward.

What I saw of Mannie Libbock for the Stormers in the URC final indicated real gains for Ireland. But he is young and looks to be improving with every outing on the basis of the Scotland game. Bundee Aki is targeting him every time he has the ball Saturday night but the Boks might have a different plan and play him on the blindside wing defensively, or at the front of the lineout.

Who has the trump card? The world champions used to intense cup pressure, or the number one team in the world who’ve forgotten how to lose? Of course South Africa are beatable, but less so if they jump out in the lead. That scenario demands Ireland score tries and f their outstanding phase game achieves that, the gains will venture far beyond St Denis on Saturday night.