How we got to where we are: The moves that lead us to Level 5
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“Nobody wanted six weeks at Level 5, and we fought against it, but in the end, there was no choice but to put the country into lockdown.”
This is the candid admission from a Cabinet minister as to why the Government within the space of two weeks went from rejecting its own medical advice on increasing restrictions to introducing the most
severe lockdown in all of Europe.
The decision to move the country to the highest level of restrictions from midnight for six weeks has been a devastating blow for businesses and families all over Ireland.
How we got here is worth exploring.
Since the summer, there has been a creeping rise cases, hospitalisations, and a number of Covid-19 deaths have occurred, but the situation appeared largely under control.
At the start of October, the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) was getting worried, but not too worried. At its meeting on October 1, it discussed the rising case numbers, but there was no major sense that things needed to change rapidly. The Nphet letter to health minister Stephen Donnelly that evening, signed by acting chief medical officer Ronan Glynn, indicated as much.
With Dublin at Level 3 in the framework of restrictions and the rest of the country at Level 2, the medics were satisfied for now.
“On balance, Nphet agreed that while the current trajectory of the disease is very concerning, the current epidemiological data does not strongly support a move to Level 3 nationally at this time,” the advice on October 1 said.
That Thursday was notable, also, because it was confirmed that chief medical officer (CMO) Tony Holohan would return to his role the following Monday, having taken a leave of absence in July to care for his sick wife. The decision needed no Cabinet meeting and the country headed into a weekend assuming life would carry on without any major changes. Unbeknownst to the public, however, events were gathering apace.
Significantly, Dr Holohan was back at work two days earlier and was deeply alarmed.
He made contact with health minister Stephen Donnelly and told him that due to the growing number of cases, he would be
convening Nphet the following day. Dr Holohan spoke to Mr Donnelly again on Sunday morning before
departing for the Department of Health, where he chaired the emergency three-hour Nphet
meeting.
That meeting ended around tea time and Nphet made a recommendation which would rock the country. A letter was sent to Mr Donnelly that evening, saying that the trajectory of the virus needed to be controlled with swift action, moving to Level 5 for four weeks from the following night.
“The measures currently in place are not sufficiently controlling the disease as evidenced by a high volume of community transmission and sustained increases across key indicators,” the letter stated.
News of the letter broke just before 9pm on a Sunday evening, with government sources saying that the letter was “a complete shock” which was “trying to box them in”.
All hell broke loose.
The leaking of the Nphet recommendation sparked recriminations from government TDs who felt that the group of medics was “trying to run the country”.
Many ministers said then and still say now it was incongruous that the Nphet advice would shift so dramatically in just 72 hours and was “cack-handed”.
A meeting between Dr Holohan and the three coalition party leaders on the Monday morning was described as “tense” and “fairly robust” by those close to it.
The leaders demanded answers as to if the recommendations were followed, how would the country exit the plan and if four weeks would be adequate to stop the spread of the virus. The Government made clear of their feeling that they had been “bounced” into a decision and were not happy with Dr Holohan’s answers.
It decided that a nationwide Level 3 restriction would be tried.
At 9pm that evening, after a day of rancour and public outcry, the Taoiseach appeared on RTÉ television to explain the Government’s decision to reject the Nphet advice.
He said that the Government needed to give businesses and health services a chance. Four kilometres away in RTÉ, the Tánaiste was getting ready to make known his displeasure.
Speaking on RTÉ’s Claire Byrne Live TV show minutes after the Taoiseach had concluded, Varadkar let fly his fury.
The Nphet plan, he said “came like a bolt from the blue”, it wasn’t thought out, he said.
He then, in the move most doctors bristled at, questioned how keenly Nphet feels the weight of its decisions.
“None of those people [in Nphet], for example, would have faced being on the pandemic unemployment payment yesterday. None of them would have to tell somebody that they were losing their job, and none of them would have had to shut their business for the last time.”
'We didn’t feel #NPHET proposal had been thought through' - Tánaiste Leo Varadkar #cblive pic.twitter.com/z8YhvYgFPS
— Upfront with Katie Hannon (@RTEUpfront) October 5, 2020
Fianna Fáil ministers were furious at Mr Varadkar and the Taoiseach, privately, was seething at such direct criticism of officials.
The next morning, Fianna Fáil ministers were dispatched out onto the airwaves to praise Dr Holohan and Nphet, with Thomas Byrne saying he disagreed with Mr Varadkar.
There was a sense building that Dr Holohan’s job had become untenable and much was made of his attendance back at Government Buildings that morning and diplomacy was needed.
Mr Varadkar and Dr Holohan spoke by telephone on the Tuesday, with both men saying that there was a long conversation, but no apology. Dr Holohan said that it was “not personal”, a sentiment the Tánaiste echoed.
“I am around a long time, I have a thick skin,” was how Dr Holohan responded to media questions on the row.
Despite relations being considerably strained, Nphet on October 8 repeated its advice, saying its concerns were even greater.
Following its meeting last Thursday, October 15, Nphet not only repeated its demand of moving the country to Level 5, it doubled down on it, insisting it now needed to happen for a period of six weeks.
“There has been a further significant deterioration in all key indicators of disease transmission and severity and there is a widespread community transmission across the country,” the letter from Dr Holohan said in his customary letter to Donnelly.
“The Nphet, therefore, reiterated its recommendation that the Government apply Level 5 measures across the country for a period of six weeks, subject to a periodic review.
“Nphet firmly believes that an escalation to Level 5 is inevitable and that the earlier this proactive action is taken, the greater the chance there is of quickly reversing the current trajectory of the disease,” Dr Holohan said.
Having learned the lessons of two weeks previous, the message landed clearly within Government.
The only problem was that the Taoiseach was in Brussels at the EU Summit and would not be back in Dublin until Friday.
After discussing the matter with Varadkar and Ryan, it was agreed to summon the medics into Government Buildings on Saturday to take a presentation from them and from Paul Reid, HSE CEO.
There to give presentations were Dr Holohan, his deputy Dr Ronan Glynn and the “model man” Professor Philip Nolan.
Ahead of the main meeting, the three-party leaders gathered in the Taoiseach’s office to discuss what the plan is.
There was an acceptance between them that Level 3 had not worked and a move to a higher level of restrictions was required.
“There was a consensus that Level 3 should have worked if all of the sectors had taken it seriously and sent their employees home. There was a feeling growing we needed to give the gardaí more powers,” a source said.
As to why Level 3 failed, there is an acceptance among some that the Government had gone too softly.
“We move an inch they take a mile in terms of the GAA and the county finals and all that. It was just a perfect storm in September and October with the kids going back to school also along with the GAA and the other sports.
“Then you have people saying ‘ah sure there’s no harm in going for two pints or 10 pints in reality,’” said one source.
The meeting with the medics and Mr Reid got underway in Government Buildings, the CMO gave a presentation on the basis of the letter he sent two nights previous.
He set out that the growth rate of the epidemic had accelerated in a week, saying 6,382 positive cases had been notified in the last seven days compared to 3,514 the previous week, an 82% increase.
Prof Nolan presented his “alarming” modelling as to how the health system would be “overwhelmed” very quickly if drastic action was not taken.
The medics again set out their stance that in order to get the reproductive rate (R number) below 1 then a move to Level 5 for six weeks was needed and needed quickly.
Indeed, it has emerged that while the finalised policy is to get the R rate down to below 1, Nphet stated they wanted it down to 0.5, which would have meant a harsher and/or longer lockdown.
Immediately, there was considerable push back from the politicians as to Nphet’s demands.
Their modelling came into focus and when it emerged they had only modelled on Level 5, they were asked to come back with modelling for an enhanced Level 3 and Level 4 and what impact either of those would have on suppressing the numbers.
During that debate, some of the Taoiseach’s key staff members cited a BBC report that doctors in the UK concluded that shutting retail would result in only a 0.2% drop in the R rate.
Asked what the impact of shutting retail here, Nphet were not able to give a clear answer.
It was said that people in shopping centres, indoors mingling is a dangerous situation in terms of spreading the virus and needed to be curtailed.
It was concluded that even at Level 4 there would still be a lot of cases. The dip in numbers will only begin after two weeks and at Level 4 the dip would take longer to come and would be shallower.
At least with Level 5, Prof Nolan argued that the dip should start after two and a half weeks and then go down to one by the six weeks mark if everyone behaves themselves.
The finance ministers were among those with the most objections. Donnelly had concerns too, sources have said.
Michael McGrath argued strongly for the country to be moved to a Level 4 plus rather than going to Level 5.
He fought his corner hard at the Cabinet sub-committee about a “strong Level 4 with greater enforcement”.
Donohoe, according to several sources, was left “unconvinced” by Nphet’s stance and voiced concern about the economic impact of such a prolonged lockdown on the economy.
“On the Saturday, Paschal and Michael, in particular, were extremely dubious about following Nphet’s advice and what would be required economically to make that happen. They put the Nphet chaps through their paces and it was clear at that stage they were not sold on the idea,” said one source familiar with events.
Much has been made of Leo Varadkar’s perceived u-turn on the matter, but it is clear from Saturday, confronted by the latest Nphet letter, and the fact the Government was able to tease out all the details, he was behind the idea of Level 5.
He was not, at the weekend, behind the idea of locking down for six weeks. Sources have said he suggested the possibility of a three to four-week Level 5 lockdown with a review after 2 weeks.
Varadkar, as a medical doctor was on solid ground in dealing with the medics, wanted to know what would success look like and what is the exit strategy.
It was agreed that reducing the R number below one is the key metric of whether the proposed lockdown would work.
As the consensus was building around increasing the level of restrictions, Mr McGrath and Mr Donohoe stressed the Government would have to reinstate enhanced Pandemic Unemployment Payments and Wage Subsidy supports.
It was also concluded that a fresh ban on rent evictions would have to be introduced.
It was agreed that a government memorandum for discussion at a Cabinet meeting on Monday would be drafted but on the basis of moving to Level 4 plus for a period of three to four weeks.
The meeting broke up and media lines were drafted to allow for the Sunday papers and RTÉ to be briefed as to the direction of travel.
On Sunday, while there were no formal meetings, there was plenty of cross-government contact between ministers Donohoe, McGrath, Donnelly, and O’Brien about the PUP and EWSS changes as well as progressing the evictions ban.
The leaders were also in contact by phone as were their chiefs of staff Brian Murphy and Deirdre Gillane, who played a central role in steering the ship on Sunday.
Their work was to ensure the package was ready to be signed off by Monday morning.
Varadkar briefed his Fine Gael ministers as to the state of play and said he was demanding to see evidence of an exit strategy in the plan and also that a key metric of success was needed to bolster public confidence.
With everyone expecting a move to Level 4 plus extra enforcements on Monday, the three leaders met again with the key ministers and the CMO and his team.
The medics again were unambiguous as to their demand for a six-week move to Level 5.
McGrath again pushed back and reportedly said keeping the schools open under Level 5 would be difficult, reflecting “concerns” from education minister Norma Foley.
Donohoe was also not fully convinced.
Sources have said that a presentation from Prof Nolan as to the likely swamping of the health system helped sway the decision.
“When you analyse Level 4 versus Level 5, the truth is Level 4 is the one that broke the backs of businesses. Business-wise at Level 4 no wet pubs, no dry pubs, no gastropubs, no hotels. There is very little difference,” said one source.
At the behest of the politicians, it was decided that fines would only apply under a Level 5 scenario.
Once the three leaders indicated their preference to go to Level 5 for six weeks, the objections from the others faded away.
“There was unanimity among those present by the time they went into full Cabinet as to what course of action was needed. Nobody wanted six weeks, but according to the science it is needed,” a minister said.
The formal recommendation of Level 5 for six weeks would be tabled for approval by way of a 25-page memorandum.
Donohoe, McGrath, health minister Stephen Donnelly, social protection minister Heather Humphreys all voiced concerns about the impact of moving to
Level 5.
Foreign affairs minister Simon Coveney strongly spoke against the proposed lockdown period of six weeks.
Coveney also queried the five kilometre limit and wondered could a higher limit be introduced.
Simon Harris, a known Nphet supporter, suggested three weeks with a review, but this was countered by the argument that such a short period would give “false hope” as a six-week period is deemed necessary to give effect to the measures.
Shortly after 7pm, the meeting broke up and the Taoiseach announced the measures on the main evening news at 9pm.
“That’s why it is going to happen again after the six weeks because the most important thing is whatever level we go back to after the six weeks because it has to work, even with the Christmas. Otherwise, we will be facing Level 4 or Level 5 again,” said one minister.
However, other ministers have warned that “there is not a third lockdown in the Irish people. This has to work.”