Election 2024: TG4 poll predicts Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will take two seats each in Mayo
Graphic: Poll And The On Phone B&a Conducted And Tg4 Monday Tuesday Tg4/ipsos 18 Over Was 19 The November
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are each on track to win two seats each in the Mayo constituency, a new poll shows.
The TG4/Ipsos B&A poll shows that junior housing minister Alan Dillon leads the way with 17% of the vote in the five-seat constituency.
He is followed by Sinn Fein's Rose Conway Walsh on 13%, with Fianna Fáil's junior enterprise minister Dara Calleary on 11%.
His party colleague Lisa chambers is on 10% in her hunt to regain the seat she lost in 2020, level with Fine Gael's Mark Duffy.
A third Fine Gael candidate, Keira Keogh is on 8%, putting Fine Gael in a strong position to hold the seat vacated by former minister Michael Ring.
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Independent Patsy O'Brien, who it was reported this week was expelled from Fine Gael for sending inappropriate messages, is on 7% along with Paul Lawless of Áontú.
In 2020, Fine Gael took two of the four seats — Michael Ring topped the poll and former GAA star Mr Dillon edged Michelle Mulherin out for the second Fine Gael seat.
The combined Fine Gael vote in this poll lines up with the party’s vote share in 2020 when they won two seats in what was then a four-seat constituency.
However, questions remain about Fine Gael’s strategy of running four candidates, which caused some concern in recent weeks.
Sinn Féin’s Rose Conway-Walsh is well positioned to hold her seat with 13% of the vote.
Sinn Féin’s total vote in Mayo is 18% adding in Gerry Murray’s 5% which is in line with its national polling figure, but below the 23% the party achieved in 2020.
With Fianna Fáil’s vote above a quota, it will hope that it can return two TDs.
This TG4/Ipsos B&A poll was conducted over the phone on Monday and Tuesday of this week (November 18 and 19).
This is the third of a series of TG4/Ipsos B&A constituency polls as part of TG4’s election 2024 coverage.
On Tuesday, Nuacht TG4 will reveal the results of the poll of voters in the Kerry constituency.
The phone poll carries a sample of 531 which attaches a margin of error of about plus or minus four percentage points.