ieExplains: The election is over. What happens next?

With none of the main parties having secured enough seats to form a government, negotiations will take place over the coming days and weeks on forming a coalition
ieExplains: The election is over. What happens next?

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As the dust settles on the general election, the focus has now shifted to the road ahead and towards a new government.

With all the counting complete, Fianna Fáil has emerged as the biggest party in the country with 48 seats, followed by Sinn Féin with 39 seats and Fine Gael with 38.

With the magic number for a Dáil majority at 88, the two outgoing main government parties — Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael — will fall just short of that majority at 86 seats.

So what’s next?

In the days ahead, the parties will meet and take stock of the election and set out their priorities for going into government. 

As no party will have a majority, a coalition will have to be formed — which will lead to parties negotiating to see if they can agree on a programme for government, and agree on who should be taoiseach. 

Officially, the largest party (or largest group of parties) nominate someone to be taoiseach and a Dáil vote is held. If the nominated person gets a majority of votes, they become taoiseach and they then nominate a tánaiste and Cabinet of ministers. 

In 2020, when the Dáil resumed after that general election, four party leaders (Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald and Green Party leader Eamon Ryan) were proposed for nomination in the Dáil. None of the four received enough votes in the Dáil so none were named as taoiseach. 

In that instance, Mr Varadkar and the ministers who had been in place before the election stayed in their roles in an acting capacity. 

After months of negotiations, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party agreed on a programme for government and formed a coalition. More than four months after the 2020 general election, Micheál Martin was nominated as taoiseach in the Dáíl and voted in, hence forming a government. 

This time around, there will be plenty more negotiations with a number of parties having previously outlined who they will (and will not) talk to. 

Who will talk to who?

With Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael seemingly in the driver's seat, the two old Civil War parties will be first on the list to talk about re-entering power together. 

Sinn Féin is continuing to press for a change of government, calling for other parties of the left to work together to push Fine Gael out of government.

Labour’s Ivana Bacik has been clear she wanted to form a centre-left bloc, including the Social Democrats and the Greens, to have a significant negotiation force for coalition talks.

However, Fianna Fáíl has previously said it would not go into government with Sinn Féin, with leader Micheál Martin citing "serious differences" between the parties. 

Independents could also play a role in supporting a coalition of the major parties.

When will the Dáil return?

When President Michael D Higgins dissolved the Dáil last month, he set the return date as Wednesday, December 18.

New and returning TDs will arrive at Leinster House that Wednesday, with the first business of the day set to be the election of a new Ceann Comhairle by secret ballot.

The outgoing Ceann Comhairle, Seán Ó Fearghaíl, is not due to seek re-election, so it is wide open for a new candidate to take on the role.

With an agreement of a new government unlikely before December 18, there will be symbolic nominations for taoiseach but no candidate will get over the line.

When will we get a government formed?

It is not clear when a formal government agreement will be reached.

Over the weekend, the notion a government would be able to be set up by Christmas was downplayed, with Fianna Fáil’s Jack Chambers setting out on Monday it would not happen.

However, he did tell RTÉ's Morning Ireland it would not take five months to form a government, like it did in 2020.

Negotiations themselves will focus on policy detail and coalition operation, with compromise likely to be required on both sides to get a programme for government agreed.

It will likely take time and set the overall agenda for five years of government.

Once agreed, the parties will bring the agreement to their members to vote on. If agreed, it will then go to a Dáil vote and a new Taoiseach and government will be elected.

Given the current figures and likely coalition makeup, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin is poised to retake the taoiseach’s office — at least for a time — in a new government.

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