Fianna Fáil surge positions Micheál Martin for remarkable comeback as Taoiseach
Anderson Cork Looks Count Fáil Micheál Mary Bright His And Rangers Wife The Fianna Future With Centre In Picture: Chani Martin In For Pictured Tanáiste Nemo
Micheál Martin has completed a remarkable turnaround for Fianna Fáil to be on the brink of becoming Taoiseach again.
Fianna Fáil is on track to secure 8-10 seats more than Fine Gael and has again become the largest party in the country in what is being viewed as a personal victory for the Cork South Central politician.
Mr Martin brought the party from its lowest ebb in 2011 — when it suffered the worst performance of a sitting government party in the history of the state — and he later withstood calls to resign after another weak election in 2020.
After the weekend's vote, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael combined will now be close to the threshold of forming a majority in the next Dáil. Fianna Fáil is projected to secure 48 seats, with Fine Gael on 38, and Sinn Fein on 40.
As the final seats are filled, both Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald and Labour leader Ivana Bacik have said they will both speak to like-minded parties in a bid to form a coalition of the left.
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However, a government of the two civil war parties, along with another smaller party or perhaps a group of Independents, is seen as the only option among a number of sources both within the outgoing government and opposition parties.
A rollercoaster weekend of counting saw Roderic O'Gorman come back from the brink to retain the only seat for the Green Party, which has been almost wiped out and there were further shocks with the departure of junior Fianna Fáil minister Anne Rabbitte who lost her seat in Galway East while Health Minister Stephen Donnelly was clinging on as counting went on late in Wicklow.
Drama and chaos ensued in Dublin's RDS count centre for the arrival of Gerard 'the Monk' Hutch who arrived to concede the final seat in Dublin Central to Labour senator Marie Sherlock, who stunned overnight projections to claw back the gangland figure's late 2,000 vote lead.
Holly Cairns, who gave birth to a daughter on polling day, retained her seat in Cork South-West with her party set to claim as many as 11 seats.
The seat bounce earned by Fianna Fáil puts Micheál Martin in the driving seat and raises the question as to whether there will be a rotating Taoiseach.
Some sources in Fianna Fáil have said the likelihood is that Mr Martin will be generous on this matter to set a good tone for the new government but also to ensure there is no possibility of Fine Gael opting to go into opposition to rebuild. One possibility is for Fianna Fáil to hold the Taoiseach’s office for three years with Simon Harris taking over for the final two years.
Speaking at the Nemo Rangers count centre, Mr Martin said he hadn't yet spoken to either Labour or the Social Democrats indicating that "it makes no sense until we know how many seats every party has".
"I need a long walk" to "clear the head and just think this one through," he added.
Fine Gael sources suggest that the most likely third leg to a coalition will be ‘like-minded’ independents rather than one of the smaller parties.
Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe would not be drawn on the specifics of a rotating taoiseach agreement with Fianna Fáil, saying that it would be resolved under negotiations to come.
“We have to see who else will be elected. Let’s see who the bigger party is when all the seats are filled,” he said.
Mr Donohoe added there is a “chance” a government could be formed before Christmas, but he believes the more important objective is ensuring that a lasting coalition is formed.
“While of course I’d like to see that happen as soon as possible, given my experience in these processes in the past, it will take time to do.
“You’re far better off putting the time in at the start rather than dealing with the consequences of a lack of agreement during a government’s term of office.”