Election 2024: Independents could offer an alternative route to coalition deal

Across the country, particularly in rural constituencies, voters opted for Independent TDs, with 16.8% of first preferences cast in favour of a non-party candidate, including 3.6% opting for candidates under the Independent Ireland banner. While the project of Michael Collins, Richard O’Donoghue, and Michael Fitzmaurice is not set to have a massive breakthrough in terms of seats, it will likely add party chairman Ken O’Flynn in Cork North Central and could see Noel Thomas in Galway West get over the line. If Michael Clarke can take the final seat in Sligo-Leitrim, it would be a major bonus.

Those additions, as well as achieving above the 2% first-preference threshold to receive State funding, will be massive boons to the party to go with its 23 council seats and Ciaran Mullooly’s European seat. Whether they would want to do business with Micheál Martin and Simon Harris will be one thing, whether Mr Martin and Mr Harris deem them too demanding or volatile will be another entirely.

If the current Taoiseach and Tánaiste do decide to renew their parties’ coalition, they may find their numbers buttressed by some of the other Independents who were elected. In Galway East, Sean Canney has been re-elected, the first candidate to reach the quota in that constituency. He is a former two-time junior minister and, in the last Dáil, sat with the Regional Independents who became known as the “Reasonable Independents” on Government benches.

RESULTS: GENERAL ELECTION 2024

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Cork East

Cork North Central

Cork North West

Cork South Central

Cork South West

Kerry

Clare

Limerick City

Limerick County

Tipperary North

Tipperary South

Waterford

Dublin Bay North

Dublin Bay South

Dublin Central

Dublin Fingal East

Dublin Fingal West

Dublin Mid West

Dublin North West

Dublin Rathdown

Dublin South Central

Dublin South West

Dublin West

Dun Laoghaire

Carlow/Kilkenny

Kildare North

Kildare South

Laois

Longford/Westmeath

Louth

Meath East

Meath West

Offaly

Wexford

Wicklow

Wicklow/Wexford

Cavan/Monaghan

Donegal

Galway East

Galway West

Mayo

Roscommon/Galway

Sligo/Leitrim

The price of government participation for the likes of fellow returnees Mattie McGrath, Carol Nolan, and Michael Healy-Rae may be too steep, but there is a sense that Verona Murphy in Wexford, who took a massive 11,000 first preferences, could be open to some kind of overtures, with her previous standing as a member of Fine Gael not thought to be an insurmountable obstacle. Michael Lowry in Tipperary North has often given his support to former party Fine Gael.

Two former TDs who were returned as independents are Paul Gogarty and Seamus Healy. In Dublin Mid-West, the former Green TD Gogagarty — perhaps most famous for his “fuck you, Deputy Stagg” outburst — has been a popular councillor in Lucan for many years, while Mr Healy served as a TD from 2000 to 2007 and from 2011 to 2020.

But it was not all successes. In Kildare South, Independent TD Cathal Berry, largely considered a hard worker and a good advocate for the Defence Forces, lost out without a real fight, and two former Sinn Féin TDs — Violet Anne Wynne and Patricia Ryan — found that life outside the party fold to be a lot colder than on the inside. The pair had left Sinn Féin feeling “isolated”, and in the end found themselves with just a fraction of their 2020 results in Clare and Kildare South, respectively, while Sinn Féin took seats at their expense.

Waterford independent Matt Shanahan also lost out.

Likewise,some former Fine Gaelers found themselves unable to beat former colleagues. In Louth, Kevin Callan didn’t perform as expected and Meath West’s Noel French put in a decent showing, pulling 10% of the vote, but fell short. In Cork East, former Fianna Fáil councillor William O’Leary got over 4,600 first preferences, but didn’t make it. Popular former Fianna Fáil TD and senator Eugene Murphy, who ran as an Independent having failed to be selected, also missed out, finishing fifth in a three-seat Roscommon-Galway.