Election 2024: Exit poll deadlock - Sinn Fein on 21.1%, Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fáil on 19.5%
Mary Leader Fáil Harris, Simon Micheál Martin, Lou Gael Féin Fianna Mcdonald And Leader Sinn Fine
A nationwide exit poll has revealed Fine Gael and Sinn Féin are deadlocked at the top, with Fianna Fáil narrowly behind in a tight three-way race.
The poll indicates that Sinn Féin has received 21.1% of first preference votes, closely followed by Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fáil on 19.5%.
Transfers and the sequencing of eliminations are now likely to play a significant role in the eventual make-up of a coalition Government, which may require at least four parties.
The Social Democrats on 5.8%, Labour on 5% and the Green Party on 4% may all now be included in post-election government formation talks, based on initial numbers.
It appears that Independents, which had been polling at up to 20% ahead of the election, have not gained as much support as predicted, with the exit poll putting non-party candidates on 14.6%.
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The poll has People Before Profit on 3.1%. Aontú on 3.6%, and Independent Ireland on 2.2%.
The poll also takes into account the second preferences of voters, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael taking 20% apiece.
Sinn Féin, meanwhile, is slightly behind, with 17% of second preferences.
For smaller parties, Labour is the most transfer friendly on 6% while the Social Democrats are on 5%.
Speaking on RTÉ, Sinn Féin’s Matt Carthy said there will be an “obligation on all parties to reflect” on the makeup of the next Dáil once all the officials counts are completed.
Fianna Fáil’s Jack Chambers said that it is a “three-way race” and that his party’s slight dip is still within the margin of error.
Fine Gael’s Damien English said that his party is looking at between 37 and 38 seats, out of the exit poll, while adding that it shows that people are happy with government parties.
The fragmented nature of the exit polls suggests that any coalition talks will be protracted and could be difficult.
The exit poll was conducted among over 5,018 voters at more than 200 locations nationwide, as they left polling stations. It has a margin of error of 1.4%.
The poll was carried out as a joint project between the Irish Times, RTÉ, TG4 and the Department of Political Science at Trinity College Dublin.
Despite Sinn Féin finishing as the most popular party, the exit poll suggests a left-leaning coalition will be difficult to achieve.