Fianna Fáil's Gráinne Seoige faces battle to win Dáil seat — poll
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High-profile Fianna Fáil candidate Gráinne Seoige faces a battle to win a seat in the next Dáil, a TG4 poll of Galway West shows.
The poll carried out on Monday and Tuesday of this week shows that in the five-seat constituency, independent candidate and outgoing leas-Ceann Comhairle Catherine Connolly is polling at 13% with fellow outgoing independent TD Noel Grealish on 12%.
Fine Gael's candidates — government chief whip Hildegarde Naughton and senator Seán Kyne — are on 13% and 10%. Both are veteran campaigners and the Irish-language station says that the poll shows that transfers between the two are strong. However, with the quota at 17%, taking two seats would be difficult.
Sinn Féin’s Mairéad Farrell is on 9% and is in contention to keep her seat but will rely on transfers, while Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas, formerly a Fianna Fáil councillor, is pushing for a seat, with 8% support in this poll.
Mr Thomas resigned from Fianna Fáil after facing disciplinary action for comments he made in the wake of a fire that destroyed the Ross Lake House Hotel in Rosscahill in December.
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The hotel had been earmarked to house asylum seekers. After leaving Fianna Fáil, Mr Thomas ran for Independent Ireland in June’s local elections and topped the poll in the Connemara South LEA.
Long-serving Fianna Fáil TD Éamon Ó Cuív announced earlier this year that he is not contesting this election, which opens the field given that in 2020, the Fianna Fáil vote totalled 23%.
Without the veteran TD, Fianna Fáil’s support has dropped by almost 10% in this TG4/Ipsos B&A poll. Both party candidates are neck and neck with John Connolly on 7% and broadcaster Ms Seoige on the same, though the station says that she "appears to be more transfer friendly".
The other candidates in Galway West are Pauline O’Reilly (Green Party) 5%, Helen Ogbu (Labour) 4%, Eibhlín Seoighthe (Social Democrats) 3% and Mike Cubbard (Non-Party) 3%.
This is the first of a series of TG4 / Ipsos B&A constituency polls as part of TG4’s election 2024 coverage. Next Tuesday Nuacht TG4 will reveal the results of the Donegal constituency, followed by Mayo on Thursday November 21, and Kerry on Tuesday November 26.
The phone poll carries a sample of 531 which attaches a margin of error of about plus or minus four percentage points.