'I don't think people believe the Tories anymore': Irish in Britain give their verdicts ahead of election

Conservative incumbent Damian Collins, despite strong local support and a record of working to tighten Big Tech regulation — may lose out to Labour’s Tony Vaughan in the expected red wave.

“This part of England is real Tory heartland. But they're going to get wiped out here,” Mr Keigher said.

In the final poll before the vote, YouGov’s MRP predicted Keir Starmer’s Labour will win 431 seats (up 229 from 2019), with the Tories on 102 (down 263 seats from the last election).

This would give Labour a historic majority of 212.

Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats were on 72 seats (up 61) and Reform UK was predicted to win three seats.

Tory messaging during the campaign belied the party’s floundering confidence, Mr Keigher said.

“The Tories aren't even campaigning for themselves anymore. 

"All their ads are just anti-Labour. They've given up on any hope of winning, it's all about damage limitation.

“So all the ads are ‘Labour these lefties will tax you to the hilt.’ 

“I don't think people really believe these guys anymore. 

"But there is this fear from a lot of local people here, Tory supporters, around Labour. 

There's this narrative that Labour will hike up all your taxes, and they don't know how to spend, and they're irresponsible economically, and they'll run the country into the ground.

But 'the DFLs' (down from Londons), a burgeoning group of new arrivals to the pretty seaside town who fled London’s hyperinflated property market and the lack of fresh air and space during the covid pandemic, may also help to change the vote as a more Labour-leaning cohort new to Folkestone.

And even the notoriously Tory-supporting Sun newspaper switched sides this week to endorse Labour in Thursday’s vote, saying "it is time for a change".

Rishi Sunak's party had become "a divided rabble" and needed "a period in opposition to unite," an editorial in the paper declared.

In neighbouring Dover, Tory MP Natalie Elphicke, who was considered to the right of the party, defected earlier this year for Labour.

And in another possible slide from the right, Reform UK’s West Ham and Beckton candidate Georgie David resigned from Nigel Farage’s party on Tuesday, accusing it of racism and misogyny, and defected to the Conservatives.

Tactical voting, with people voting for any candidate to keep the Tories out of government, may also impact this year’s result, Ms Dempsey said.

Because many people are angry. 

Divisions between rich and poor have become more visible and public services have been depleted since the Tories entered government 14 years ago, Ms Dempsey said.

And since the couple moved to Folkestone from London in 2018, they have seen public services there strain and poverty increase.

“There’s an edge to Folkstone that is getting worse or has gotten worse. And there is this wealth gap that is widening. There's more poverty and addiction issues,” Ms Dempsey said.

In the park near their home, a mobile food bank now draws crowds of some 30 people looking for help weekly, they said.

And the NHS is straining to cope.

“It’s so hard to get an appointment with a GP now, even if you’re quite ill,” Ms Dempsey said.

“The Tories have run the NHS into the ground.” 

People now just want the Tories out, supermajority for Labour or not, she said.

“There was this view that the Tories were a safe pair of hands economically but the last 14 years have completely exploded that myth,” she said.

“Everybody's paying more taxes than they were before, their mortgages are way higher.

“And you’re paying taxes but you're getting nothing back.

“Libraries have been stripped back to bare bones or closed. The NHS is a disaster. Many local councils are broke. There are potholes everywhere.

“It does feel like a sinking ship.” Mr Keigher said.

It feels like Ireland in the 80s, with really poor public services, bad roads, no money.

But antimigrant rhetoric whipped up by the Tories with language like ‘stop the boats’, and policies like a controversial plan to send refugees to Rwanda, have not found traction in Folkestone, they said.

“I've never seen any anti-immigrant sentiment in Folkestone,” Ms Dempsey said.

“There was a huge vigil on the beach when dozens of people died on the channel crossing.” 

But despite widespread dislike and disillusionment with the current Tory crop, a swing towards Labour was not about “any great love” for the party for many, she said.

“It's not inspiring like when Tony Blair was coming in and it felt really hopeful,” she said.

“We know that taxation is going to have to rise with Labour to fix the disaster that is this country at the moment.

“And just stop the rot. And restore a bit of faith in politics,” Mr Keigher said.

Although Starmer may lack charisma, he has guided the party to almost certain electoral success, he said.

“They're now on the precipice of an unparalleled majority in parliament.

“He's boring as hell but I think that's what Britain needs right now.

“They've had enough characters.” 

Irish people are entitled to vote in British elections, unlike other European passport holders. 

There were 324,670 Irish-born registered as living in England and Wales in the 2021 census, with more concentrated populations in certain areas.

Toma Pople, a web developer who lives in London but is originally from West Cork, said that Labour’s win felt like a foregone conclusion. 

But ghosts of the shock Brexit vote still haunt many Londoners and have chastened any premature ebullience amongst some Labour supporters.

“But the polls are all saying Labour, Labour, Labour. So people are pretty confident that that's the way it's going to go,” he said.

However, Labour’s almost certain win may be “a burning basket” because the new government will inherit many expensive and deeply entrenched problems.

“What can they really do in the next four years?

“People are excited for the change but not very confident that it's going to have a huge impact either,” Mr Pople said.

“I think people are very disillusioned with politics generally in the country.”

Starmer’s leadership has been interpreted by many as a bit insipid and lacklustre, is that feeding apathy about the elections?

“That's part of the problem,” Mr Pople said.

“But it's more because of how the Conservatives have messed up consistently — through covid, with Boris Johnson, then with Liz Truss, with the whole economy, the cost of living crisis.

“The Conservatives have been saying ‘we're bringing inflation down, we're bringing interest rates down, which they kind of have done, but they only went through the roof because of Liz Truss's budget and of course, the situation in Ukraine.

“But it's like they made this mess and then they started clearing it up. And now they're trying to take credit for clearing it up but the damage is done.” 

As a business owner, Mr Pople said that the Conservatives have not been beneficial.

“They keep harping on about business rates being one of the things that they're going to try and bring down for small businesses.

“But a lot of online businesses like me don't have business rates anymore, so it doesn't make a difference.

“And they’re not helping someone who wants to export to Europe, which has become a real pain.

“Businesses have lost a lot of income to Europe because of Brexit.

“Labour at least are saying they will try and get a better deal with Europe, whereas the Conservatives are saying, ‘we've got the best deal we can’.”