Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to win in Ireland South, but final seats could go any way

In the third seat, Clare independent TD Michael McNamara appeared to be polling strongest, with the suggestion that his position would be solidified when Independent Ireland candidate Eddie Punch is eliminated. Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion is considered a strong contender for the fourth seat, but will face competition from Cynthia Ní Mhurchú of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael’s John Mullins, sitting MEPs Grace O’Sullivan and Mick Wallace, and the Sinn Féin senator Paul Gavan. 

Ms O’Sullivan had effectively conceded her seat on Sunday afternoon, saying that the Green wave’s “tide was going out”, but unofficial tallies began to pick up pace for her as counting progressed.

Far-right anti-immigration candidate Derek Blighe was also considered to have had a strong first preference showing.

Speaking at the count centre, Mr Kelly said that it would be “fantastic” to be returned for a fourth term as an MEP, noting that there is a 60% turnover of MEPs from one parliament to the next across Europe.

This weekend’s results show that “opinion polls should not be treated as gospel”, Tánaiste Micheál Martin says. Speaking in his home club of Nemo Rangers, Mr Martin said that polls had consistently shown Fianna Fáil in third place, but that the party was on course to be the largest party in local government.

He said that he did not foresee the Sinn Féin “collapse” but said that it showed that the idea of Sinn Féin in government was no longer a foregone conclusion.

However, Mr Martin said that the positive showing of government parties did not necessarily mean that a general election should be called. He said that a budget should be passed and that it “cannot just be about electioneering”.

“At the last Fianna Fáil ard fheis, all I was asked was ‘will you go into government with Sinn Féin’ as if they were automatically going to be elected. So the lesson for everyone is to stop the presumptive narrative on the basis of an internet panel poll which has flaws. Don’t give a rating to polling above and beyond everything. They’re coming fast and furious but they’re not really reflective of what’s going on the ground.

“You cannot draw any conclusions from the local elections in respect of a general election. And we know that from experience and I certainly will not be making that error. A general election is a clean sheet and is a different perspective, they’re different elections by far, and there will be a different dynamic at play.”

Fine Gael’s director of elections Simon Coveney said at the count that the feeling in Fine Gael was “buoyant” and said that Mr Mullins had performed strongly and would be in with a chance as the week progresses.

Mr Coveney said over the weekend that the “centre of Irish politics has held”.