Daniel McConnell: Does Ireland really need up to 20 extra TDs?

The formal revving up of the new Electoral Commission last week to assess the latest Census data, which confirmed Ireland’s growing population, is the first step in bringing that situation into being.

At present, the number of TDs stands at 160.

Under Article 16.2.2 of the Constitution, the total number of members of Dáil Éireann cannot be fixed at fewer than one member per 30,000 of the population, or at more than one member per 20,000 of the population.

The provisional data from Census 2022 show that the population of the State has crept over 5m for the first time. At 5,123,536, it is an increase of more than 361,671 from 2016.

So, the new commission only has until July to return to Government with its plan for the next Dáil, including how many TDs there should be, and where boundaries for constituencies start and stop.

Notes from commission 

In a note to all TDs and senators issued last Friday, the commission set out a number of things.

Firstly, it said the total number of members of the Dáil, subject to Article 16.2.2 of the Constitution, shall be no fewer than 171 and no more than 181, based on the population growth.

Senior Government figures have made clear that the final number will be “at the upper end of that” and will be either 178 or 180.

The reason for going to the higher limit, sources say, is to allow the commission to “future-proof” the design of the new boundaries, which will have to last for “at least two electoral cycles”, or 10 years if the Government runs full term.

“The constant chopping and changing of boundaries has proven to be very disruptive and controversial,” said one minister. "The plan by going high in terms of Dáil numbers is to provide some clarity and consistency."

Another reason for going to the maximum level is to correct for the impact of reducing the number of TDs from 166 to 158 by the then Fine Gael-led Government under Enda Kenny, which was done on the grounds of making austerity savings.

A game of seats 

The commission has also made clear that each constituency shall return three, four, or five members, thereby ending suggestions of new mega six-seat constituencies.

Politicians don’t like three-seat constituencies, as it is far harder to win a seat, and it is expected that we are likely to see more four and five-seaters.

The commission has also made clear that the breaching of county boundaries shall be avoided as far as practicable.

This element of constituency design has proven most controversial in the past, especially where small parts of one county have been hived off into another to meet the population requirement to form a viable constituency.

With the greatest population increase coming in the Greater Dublin area and its commuter belt, it is believed that at least nine of the additional seats will go into the capital and the surrounding counties of Meath, Kildare, and Wicklow.

Of most interest is what is likely to happen to the current five-seat constituency of Dublin Fingal.

It is thought likely that this geographically large constituency could see two seats added and could be split into a four-seater and a three-seater. To make this happen, this could see Howth and/or Sutton hived away from Dublin Bay North.

Based on population growth, Cork South-Central seems likely to increase from four to five seats.

It will also be interesting to see what happens to the current five-seat constituency of Tipperary, given the instructions to try to honour existing county boundaries as much as possible.

It is thought that Tipperary could become two three-seat constituencies, but the difficulty is that such a move would involve slicing off bits of several other counties to make it work.

The Oireachtas needs, by law, to pass the new regime by the summer recess, so time is tight.

As the old saying goes, "there may be trouble ahead".