Helen McEntee supporters want confident woman at helm of Fine Gael
Minister Justice Bee To Leader Running The Party In Is Helen Mcentee
After 11 years in Government, Fine Gael is flagging badly.
Recent months have seen an upswing in internal discontent as to the party’s performance in Government as well as its own handling of several self-inflicted own goals such as the Katherine Zappone affair, Champagnegate, as well as being seen to give in to the Green Party too much.
Sunday’s Red C poll in the , reporting the party’s lowest rating since 2005 at just 20%, reflects the wider sense of malaise and lethargy currently engulfing Fine Gael.
That poll rating is down from a high of 37% in autumn 2020, when the party’s handling of Covid-19 in the early months garnered significant support.
Since last month, the has taken soundings from a large number of the Fine Gael parliamentary party, 35 of the 55 Oireachtas members in fact, to find out where they think the party is going wrong, their feelings on Tánaiste Leo Varadkar’s ongoing criminal case, and its potential impact on the party as well as who they would like to see replace Mr Varadkar, if and when the time comes.
This exercise, no more than any opinion poll, is merely our attempt to provide a comprehensive and authoritative snapshot of the current sentiment within Fine Gael.
What we can report is that there is a high degree of concern about the ongoing criminal investigation into Mr Varadkar’s leaking of the GP contract to his friend from the Taoiseach’s office, and the potential for that issue to poison the water ahead of his expected re-taking of that office in December.
What is also clear is that following a disastrous 2021 for him and the party, Simon Coveney’s chances of becoming leader of Fine Gael are all but gone. The same can also be said for Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe.
According to our sample, based on conversations with those TDs and senators, it would appear to be a two-horse race between Higher Education Minister Simon Harris and Justice Minister Helen McEntee.
Like Mr Varadkar and Mr Coveney were when Enda Kenny was leader, our poll suggests that Mr Harris and Ms McEntee will be the two camps to emerge in the coming months to challenge for the leadership, when a vacancy arises.
Most in the party who we spoke to made clear they do not see any imminent heave pending against Mr Varadkar, but one senior minister said the party “must end its bad run of luck, and only the leader can do that”.
The breakdown of the figures are as follows:
- Some 11 members said they were backing Mr Harris;
- Eight members said they were backing Ms McEntee;
- Two members said they would be happy to see either Ms McEntee or Mr Harris assume the leadership;
- Four said they were backing Mr Donohoe, three said they were backing Mr Coveney;
- A new name, that of junior minister Peter Burke, has emerged as a potential future leader with two people backing him. It must also be said a larger number of TDs and senators said they want to see Mr Burke in Cabinet;
- Five members said they did not wish to speculate as to who the future leader would be at this time.
But what does all of this mean for the individuals themselves?
For Simon Coveney, the foreign affairs minister and Cork South Central TD, his lack of support speak to the damage he inflicted on Fine Gael through his various missteps since last summer.
The levels of anger about his mishandling of the Zappone affair, in particular, cannot be overstated.
A number of TDs and senators made clear that while they respect Mr Coveney, they think that by the time the leadership comes free, it will be too late for him.
This is primarily because he has been at the Cabinet table since 2011. Others who said they previously backed him, pointed to the crisis in the Defence Forces as a major black mark.
Those who support him still argue he is the party’s strongest asset on major issues such as Brexit and other international affairs.
While Dublin Central TD Paschal Donohoe, the finance minister, has repeatedly denied interest in the leadership position, he has regularly been mentioned in the context of being a potential candidate.
He re-stated his lack of interest in an interview in the two weeks ago.
Mr Donohoe’s comments may have been driven by the fact his standing internally was significantly damaged by the party’s poor general election result in 2020, for which he was director of elections.
TDs cited a refusal to open the purse strings in the budget preceding the election, only for them to see Michael McGrath, the public expenditure and reform minister, “spend like mad” since taking office as the main cause of anger.
Mr Donohoe has insisted he is not for running off to Europe and that he has “unfinished business” in Irish politics, but it would appear that if he does in fact hold leadership ambitions, he will have to make up the ground from the leading two.
That Wicklow TD Mr Harris finds himself at the front of the pack is perhaps on one level very surprising and on another not surprising at all.
Opponents internally are suspicious of him and point to his “blatant and naked” ambition in terms of wanting to be leader.
They also point to the fact that it was a motion of no confidence in him which collapsed the last government.
His supporters, even those who professed not to like him particularly, point to his social media connection with young voters, which they say the party badly needs.
“He is the only one doing any of that,” said one seasoned TD.
Meath-East TD Ms McEntee has emerged since being elevated to Cabinet as a viable and potent candidate.
Her reforms on areas like migrant rights and her own victory in terms of her maternity leave have cemented her candidacy.
More cautious than Mr Harris in terms of her media performances and outings, opponents internally say she has yet to be really tested.
Those backing her say having a glamorous, confident woman at the helm of the party is exactly the modern image Fine Gael needs.