Ireland could be short almost 50,000 nurses by 2041, report shows
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Ireland could be up to 50,000 nurses short of what the healthcare system needs by 2041, a gap that could cost billions to fill, a new report has said.
The independent Parliamentary Budget Office in the Oireachtas has published a report on the workforce projection and costs for those working in nursing and midwifery in Ireland.
“Given future complexities likely to arise on account of, among other matters, demographic change and possible future medical emergencies such as a new pandemic, workforce planning in respect of nurses and midwives is of utmost importance to the public health system in Ireland,” it said.
It found the deficits in future supply of nurses here “are likely to be large” and even if education place targets are met, it is likely a great deal of extra recruitment will come from outside of Ireland.
While figures from Eurostat say Ireland has the highest ratio of nursing and midwifery staff to 100,000 inhabitants in the European Union, it is likely this figure is “overstated”.
“Ireland’s ratio of graduate nurses and midwives to 100,000 inhabitants (34.47) is relatively low among European peers,” the PBO said.
“The Government has announced additional education places in recent years, however, as well as an intention to double the number of places into the future.”
It pointed to gaps in nursing and midwifery numbers currently being filled by the recruitment of overseas staff and from agencies. It also pointed to statistics suggesting Irish-educated nurses are likely to be better paid in many popular destinations for graduates such as the US, Australia and Canada.
Under the projected population demand, coupled with Ireland’s aging population, it said the health service could be significantly short in terms of nursing numbers by the 2040s.
Under one scenario, it would suggest over 15,500 extra nurses would be required between 2023 and 2041, implying an extra cost of almost €1.2bn by then compared to 2023.
Taken together with the number of expected turnover in staff and the number of graduates entering the workforce, the PBO said it implied a “likely deficit in supply of over 49,800” nurses by that decade.
Currently, the health service remains under pressure due to a recruitment freeze across many areas of the HSE, including many key roles, due to budget constraints.
The current hiring freeze in the HSE was extended in November to almost all staff and grades, with the exception of GPs, consultants and graduate nurses and midwives.
Last week, Labour leader Ivana Bacik called on the Taoiseach to end the “damaging” recruitment freeze in the HSE, which is putting further pressure on health services.
Leo Varadkar said the embargo "actually means they can hire 2,000 extra people this year", despite the constraints in place.