'Ireland will be unrecognisable if we fail to reduce emissions' 

It is the first comprehensive assessment of key aspects of climate change with a central focus on Ireland.

Some 16 of the 20 warmest years in Ireland have occurred since 1990, while recent floods in Midleton were noted as examples of the consequences already being experienced here. Storms and extreme waves pose an “ever-increasing threat” to the country as sea levels continue to rise, particularly for coastal cities such as Cork, Dublin, and Galway, and to critical infrastructure.

Recent studies have highlighted higher rates of sea level rise in Cork and Dublin than the global average.

One of the authors,  Peter Thorne of Maynooth University, said climate change is already having real consequences in Ireland and show how ill-adapted the country is for future events.

Noting the recent “extreme floods” in Midleton as an example, Prof Thorne said: 

These recent events highlight the vulnerability of individuals, communities, sectors, and ecosystems to climate change. 

Adaptation to protect the country from future climate change impacts is “too slow and fragmented” while vulnerability will only increase as the population ages.

Prof Thorne said sea levels will continue to rise and will take thousands of years to stabilise, “even once net zero emissions are reached”.

According to the report, “truly extreme heat events” that are rare in the current climate are projected to become more common in all scenarios.

“2022 was the hottest year on record up until this report was finalised. It has since been usurped by 2023,” Prof Thorne said, warning that 2023 will be topped.

The assessment provides a picture of where Ireland is in its response to the climate emergency and provides insights on the scale of the challenge for Ireland to become climate neutral and climate-resilient.

The assessment states that, since their peak in 2001, Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions have fallen in all sectors except agriculture.

Despite this, Ireland is currently ranked the second highest across the EU for emissions per person. And, although a legal basis is now in place for deep, rapid, and sustained national emissions cuts, current action is insufficient to meet these aims.

The report says Ireland has made “limited progress” in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to date and “there is a long way to go”.

Currently deployed policies and actions are insufficient and Ireland is not presently on track to meet these statutory greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.

“Greenhouse gas emission estimates for 2021 and 2022 indicate that 47% of Ireland’s first carbon budget has been emitted within 40% of the budget’s time frame [two years of the five-year budget period],” it reads.

Based on various projections, rapid action on reducing emissions would likely leave Ireland with a climate that is still “broadly recognisable” in comparison to today.

However, it warns that delayed action could see Ireland with an “increasingly unrecognisable” climate, with a potential temperature increase of 2.77C by the end of the century.

Intense rain would also become more frequent and extreme, with further warming in most regions of Ireland.

“If we can reach net zero global carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, then many of the key components of the climate system such as temperature and precipitation would stabilise within the lifetime of many of today’s younger citizens and to the benefit of all of society,” said EPA director general Laura Burke.

University College Cork professor Brian Ó Gallachóir described the changes needed as “unprecedented and wide-ranging”, requiring significant political will, investment and societal capacity.