Government must take 'unprecedented' action to achieve key climate and housing goals 

It also suggested that the Government “reassesses” the sequencing of planned large-scale projects under the plan “to account for the demand they will place on resources”.

“The government faces a dilemma,” ESRI director Professor Alan Barrett said.

“On the one hand, there is a clear need for investment in public infrastructure as our population and economy grow and our climate targets remain challenging. However, on the other hand, the economy is operating at full employment so the resources needed to accelerate the NDP are not readily available.” 

Despite the economy performing “exceptionally strongly” at the moment, according to the ESRI, it still faces “severe capacity constraints”.

For example, to meet our targets around climate in the field of onshore and offshore wind, solar PV, conventional generation and energy efficiency, Ireland would need an additional 24,000 workers annually in these areas.

“Achieving climate targets relating to renewable electricity deployment and dwelling energy efficiency will require an unprecedented reprioritisation of construction sector resources or a considerable increase in the size of the sector,” the ESRI said.

The ESRI was commissioned by the Department of Public Expenditure, National Development Plan Delivery and Reform to examine the plan in its current state.

Despite the initial 2018 plan setting out ambitious aims to deliver projects around the country, the ESRI said the latest information suggests this earlier level of ambition “may have underestimated what is needed”.

“Population growth is exceeding expectations and targets on greenhouse gas emissions look increasingly challenging,” it said.

The National Development Plan, the 2021-2030 version of which was published three years ago, set out a €165bn investment plan for the country across a wide variety of sectors such as housing, climate, transport and healthcare.

Government ministers hailed it as the “largest and greenest” national development plan in the history of the State with “record levels of investment”.

As well as delivering thousands of new homes and new transport services such as Metrolink in Dublin and the Cork Commuter Rail Programme, it also aims to deliver the likes of the Cork City Flood Relief Scheme and the retrofitting of hundreds of thousands of homes to deliver on climate goals.

If the Government was to try to accelerate the National Development Plan, it would risk putting up construction inflation and ultimately mean the projects cost the taxpayer more. However, the short-term impacts could be offset, such as a quicker transition to renewables cutting energy costs in the long-term.

Initiatives from the Government to help meet its goals could be to direct construction activity towards housing rather than car parks, offices and hotels through the likes of taxation. On the other hand, it could also delay some projects until Ireland does have the required resources to follow them through.

In the area of housing, the ESRI said that it was clear that the State would have to continue committing “significant funds” towards the provision of social and affordable housing in the medium term.

Crucially, bringing vacant homes back into use and the use of modular homes should also be considered, as well as a substantial increase in resources for the beleaguered planning system in Ireland.

In transport, the ESRI said that research has suggested that the existing system in Ireland fosters growing car use an emissions “by design” and will not contribute enough to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

“Overall, there appears to be a disconnect between the objectives of the Climate Action Plan and the scope of transport projects in the National Development Plan where more urgency is merited,” it said.