Cop28: Agreement reached on the need to get away from fossil fuel use

Cop28 in Dubai had threatened to end in failure on Monday when the first draft of the proposed agreement on the next global move to combat climate change was published, with the phrase "phasing out" of fossil fuels conspicuously absent.

Ireland's Environment Minister Eamon Ryan, who is one of the EU's lead negotiators on the so-called Global Stocktake text, had said the bloc was willing to walk away from the talks if the proposed text was not made stronger in relation to fossil fuel.

Cop28 had to consider the Global Stocktake, an examination of all the climate plans for countries across the world. It showed that 1.5C is way off trajectory and that a massive ramping up of decarbonisation needs to take place between now and 2030.

Scientists have long argued that the evidence shows that phasing out fossil fuels as well as ramping up clean and renewable energy is necessary if global warming is to be kept to 1.5C.

According to the Paris Agreement of 2015, reached at Cop21, a 1.5C rise in temperatures was set as the limit for the rise globally compared to 1850-1900, in order to stave off the very worst fallout from climate change.

Before the vote of the 198 countries was taken on Wednesday morning in Dubai, Mr Ryan sounded a more optimistic note.

"It's a historic moment - yes or no, can we unite?... The first test is can we unite... If the gavel comes down, we'll have shown that we can unite in a world that is divided, a world that is at war, a world that is burning. That's the most important first message to our people," he said.

The agreed text, rather than referring to "phasing out" of fossil fuels, instead calls on countries to move away from them - wording that critics say is far too ambiguous and open to wide interpretation.

'A positive thing'

The chairperson of the Climate Change Advisory Council, Marie Donnelly, described the agreement as "a very positive thing".

"If we hadn't reached an agreement, we would be in total disarray,” she told RTÉ radio’s Morning Ireland.

“I think the second thing is we saw in Cop a very visible attempt by the fossil fuel industry to derail the process, to deny the science and of the real need for taking measures in the area of fossil fuels.

“And I think it's a real success that that lobby was actually defeated as part of this process. So from my perspective, that is a real success."

She said the agreement is "the starting gun".

"Now, we can be serious about the discussion of phasing out fossil fuels," she added.

ActionAid Ireland said that the latest Cop28 Global Stocktake "maps a rocky road towards a fossil free future."

ActionAid Ireland CEO, Karol Balfe, said: “While the new text sends a signal that the fossil industry’s days are numbered, the wealthiest countries have clearly refused point blank to offer any new finance to help developing countries make these targets a reality on the ground. 

"Rich countries want to have their cake and eat it. But they should remember – there’s no such thing as a free climate target. This text means that lower income countries already being pushed into debt by the cost of climate disasters may be forced to make impossible choices between economic security and climate action."

The text has many loopholes and offers several gifts to the greenwashers, she claimed.

Charity World Vision Ireland, which aims to support millions of vulnerable children in dozens of developing countries, called the failure to insert “phasing out” of fossil fuels “unforgivable”.

“While we acknowledge the progress on recognition of fossil fuels within the decision taken, however, with extreme concern, we note the weak language on the phase out of fossil fuels in the decision taken on the Global Stocktake. The findings of the most recent IPCC report made it clear that a fast phase out of fossil fuels is fundamental to keeping keep 1.5°C in reach,” it said.

The inability of leaders gathered at Cop28 to deliver an ambitious roadmap for the phasing out of fossil fuels is unforgivable, chief executive Gillian Barnett said.

“The communities and children we work with, particularly in small island states and least developed countries, cannot wait. We have moved passed tipping points, past deadlines and past critical junctures. The world needs greater ambition, the world needs greater leadership.”