The health service is "staring down the barrel of a real disaster" unless every hospital bed is used this winter, a leading emergency medicine consultant has warned.
As fears grow about hospital overcrowding in the coming weeks, startling new French research shows that a night on a trolley in an emergency department can increase the risk of dying “by almost 40%” for patients.
Amid controversy over HSE plans to move older people out of hospitals more speedily after their treatment finishes — even when a nursing home is not in their preferred location — Professor Conor Deasy said decisions must be made to ensure hospital beds are freed up.
Professor Deasy, a spokesman for the Irish Emergency Medicine Association and consultant in emergency medicine at Cork University Hospital, said: “We have new information this week that tells us for every 21 older adults who spend a night in the emergency department, there is an extra death.
The study, carried out by the Sorbonne University with 97 hospitals, analysed the experience of 1,598 patients aged over 75 last December.
“A night spent on a stretcher in the emergency room increases by almost 40% the risk of hospital mortality, which increases from 11.1% to 15.7%,” the research found.
“If all the patients in this study could have been admitted to a hospital room before nightfall, 3% of deaths could have been avoided.”
The new HSE policy on moving elderly patients out of hospitals more quickly caused shock among gerontologists and community workers, as it could mean transfers to a site lacking rehabilitation, or far from family.
However, Dr Deasy said it is “the least-worst option” in the context of patients dying in emergency departments "for the want of a bed”.
“Hopefully, within a reasonable period of time, they [elderly patients] will be offered their preferred one," he added.
One of the leading voices against the new policy has been Professor Des O’Neill, chair of the Irish Society of Physicians in Geriatric Medicine, who described it as “ageist”.
Dr Deasy said they have been in contact about this.
“Our focus is slightly different, but the overall genesis of our problem is the lack of bed capacity,” he said.