EU shipping will depend on fossil fuels past 2050, says transport federation
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Fossil fuels will continue to power three-quarters of the EU's shipping by 2040 despite the passing of one of the most ambitious emissions reduction laws earlier this year, an analysis has found.
According to the study from the highly-respected European Federation for Transport and Environment, known as Transport & Environment (T&E), the FuelEU Maritime law aimed at decarbonising ships will still leave the sector dependent on fossil fuels despite stringent new requirements for greener fuel.
Some 98% of shipping relies on fossil fuel power in the EU currently, while last year international shipping accounted for about 2% of global energy-related emissions, according to the International Energy Agency (EEA).
FuelEU, among other elements, requires ships to cut emissions by 2% as of 2025, 6% as of 2030, 14.5% as of 2035, 31% as of 2040, 62% as of 2045 and 80% as of 2050.
However, T&E said the ambition is not enough, and "will fall behind where it needs to be in every decade up to and beyond 2050, meaning the sector will almost certainly overshoot the target of keeping global heating to 1.5C".
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Under the current law, 6% of shipping will run on green e-fuel by 2035 and this will rise to 24% by 2040, T&E said.
"To ensure the sector decarbonises on time, the share of green e-fuels will need to be at least 18% and 85% in 2035 and 2040 respectively, alongside strong energy efficiency measures," it warned.
At last year's UN climate change summit Cop27 in Egypt, Environment and Transport Minister Eamon Ryan called for international aviation and shipping to cough up funds towards so-called "loss and damage" and "climate finance" efforts to protect countries most vulnerable to climate change.
Loss and damage refers to the consequences of climate change that go beyond what people can adapt to, while climate finance refers to major nations paying a fairer share towards climate change bolstering in smaller nations.
Aviation and shipping are conspicuous omissions from Ireland's carbon budgets, which allocate emissions ceilings to the likes of motorists, households, farmers, businesses, and industry in five-year cycles.
According to T&E, 75% of shipping in the EU would be powered by fossil fuels unless targets are ramped up.
T&E shipping analyst Alex Springer said: "Last year, the EU took a major stride in tackling carbon emissions from ships by introducing the world’s first green fuels mandate for shipping. But in the midst of a climate crisis, what it requires of shipping companies is not enough.
"The EU’s failure to get shipping to zero by 2050 puts the bloc’s entire Green Deal at risk. Europe’s policymakers must go bolder and revise the targets immediately following next year’s European elections.”