Ireland 'below European average for police-to-people ratio'
April The Strength In And At 14,294 To 2022 Garda Pared 14,537 Last 13,995 Stood In April 2021 April,
Garda numbers are below the European average and “far below” the nations with the highest police-to-population ratios, according to Oireachtas estimates.
Ireland has 291 gardaí for every 100,000 inhabitants, compared to an average of 328 police for every 100,000 people across 35 countries in Europe.
Ireland’s ranking at 21 in the table compares to the top three countries that have rates of 500+ police officers and four countries with ratios of 400+ police officers.
The comparative figures were using 2020 data, but the analysis said that in 2022, the Garda ratio had dropped even further, to 277.
The analysis, conducted by the Oireachtas Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO), said there has been a “significant divergence” in recent years between government recruitment targets and the reality of actual recruitment numbers.
It said the ongoing government target of 15,000 gardaí and 4,000 civilians was first set in 2016 and that recruitment kept in line with that until 2018.
It then began increasing at a slower rate than the target, hitting a peak in 2020, and dropping thereafter.
The PBO said Garda costs will have to “increase substantially”, with €84m required simply to meet the 15,000 Garda target and €50m needed to meet the 4,000 civilian target.
But if a government wants to maintain the 2022 ratio of gardaí to the population for the next 15 years — factoring in the increasing population —
some €1.4bn would be required to maintain that for gardaí and €224m would be needed for civilians.
The detailed analysis puts further pressure on the Government and Garda HQ as Garda numbers have continued to fall during 2022 and into 2023.
The Garda strength stood at 13,995 last April, compared to 14,294 in April 2022 and 14,537 in April 2021.
Civilian staff stood at 2,860 last April, the same as April 2022, but down from 3,125 in April 2021.
The report said that to just maintain Ireland’s 2022 ratio (277 per 100,000), factoring in the projected population rises, the number of gardaí would have to increase from 14,133 in 2022 to 15,153 in 2029 and to 16,238 in 2037.
In order to reach the European average, the Garda headcount would need to reach 15,341 by 2029 and 16,722 by 2037.
“Notwithstanding possible distinctions among different police forces, Ireland’s police officer-to-population ratio is below the average among their EEA and British counterparts and far below that of those nations with the highest ratios,” the report concluded.
It said that to reach the levels of fourth place Portugal, Garda numbers would need to reach 18,076 by 2029 and 22,584 by 2037.
The price tag for this would be €4.2bn over the next 15 years.
The report said the recruitment target was a total of 1,350 over 2020 and 2021, but only 668 attested from Garda college.
But 625 retired in the last two years, leaving a net increase of 43.
Both the Government and the Policing Authority have said that due to covid-19 restrictions, more than 1,000 fewer students were recruited than planned.
The PBO said it was “not advocating” any particular policy regarding the effectiveness or otherwise of attaining the stated Garda recruitment target on crime levels in Ireland, noting that opinion on the subject was “divided”.