HSE predicts six-fold rise in new cases of cocaine treatment by 2026
Current Cocaine Hse Years, The 2,503 New Next Based Cases Forecasts Trends Few Within The On
The number of new cases of people being treated for cocaine is expected to rise a further 55% by 2026, according to the HSE.
In what is thought to be the first analysis of its type, the agency forecasts 2,503 new cocaine cases within the next few years, based on current trends.
This compares to around 1,640 new cases as of 2021 (an increase of 55% on that), the HSE National Social Inclusion Office said.
The predicted numbers in 2026 would represent a six-fold jump in new cocaine treatment cases since 2014 when there were 400 of them.
New cases, as opposed to people who have been previously treated, are seen as a better indicator of drug trends.
The HSE study, compiled Dr David Evans and Professor Eamon Keenan, combined two separate treatment databases — the National Drug Treatment Reporting System (NDTRS) held by the Health Research Board and the Central Treatment List, operated by the National Drug Treatment Centre.
The report said the separation of these two databases had resulted in a “relative underreporting of the true numbers in receipt of treatment”.
The total number of treatment cases in 2021 was 23,332, which, it said, was higher than published in the NDTRS.
This figure is expected to rise to 24,181 by 2026.
The combined databases show that the total number of new cases for all drugs stood at 4,276 in 2014, falling to 3,713 in 2017.
Since then, the numbers have increased significantly, reaching a high of 4,813 in 2021.
Opioids — including heroin and methadone — continue to be the main problem drug treated in 2021, at 66%.
The report shows that the bulk (80%) of opioid cases are people who are repeat treatments and only account for 9% of new cases.
Cocaine makes up 33.5% of new cases, followed by cannabis, at 31%.
“While new treatment cases of opioids and cannabis have started to decline, cocaine has experienced almost a fourfold increase since 2014, and in 2021, was the most frequently treated problem drug for new cases,” the report said.
“This is a worrying pattern with forecasts suggesting that if this continues, there could be an additional 55% increase in new treatment cases in Ireland by 2026.”
It said the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction and the United Nations believe that new treatment patterns are the most representative of the underlying untreated population.
“As such the findings suggest that cocaine use is dramatically rising among the population in Ireland, which ‘mirrors’ patterns throughout Europe,” the HSE report said.
It said that treatment for cocaine powder increased by 240% since 2014, while treatment for crack rose by 300%, albeit from a much lower base.
It said the Emcdda had noted that crack treatment is difficult given the mental and physical health problems of clients and aggressive behaviour associated with its use.
It said this may require investment in specific treatment, which, it said, the HSE has recognised.
The report also found a 33% increase in new cases involving homeless people and predicted a further 39% by 2016.
It found that the number of homeless people treated for opioids was 15-30 times greater than any other drug, but it did record a very substantial increase in cocaine use too among this population.
In relation to ethnicity, it found an 8% rise among Irish people, a 15% increase among Travellers and a 28% rise among other ethnicities.
A larger proportion of Irish people were treated for cocaine, while a larger proportion of Travellers were treated for benzodiazepines (sedatives).
Among other ethnicities, it was cannabis.
The report also said that a “significant number of people” that experience problem drug use are not in treatment.
While prevalence estimates for opioid use suggest HSE services are treating a significant proportion of opioid-dependent users, the report said “this may not necessarily be the case for people dependent on other substances”.
It said UN estimates suggest only 10-14% of problem drug users are receiving treatment.
It said this underlined the importance of screening for drug disorders in general health settings and that it was something that “should be explored”.
The report said opioid and cannabis remain a significant public health concern, with opioids accounting for three-quarters of overdoses and cannabis a key drug presenting in drug-related emergency department presentations.
“Mental health adverse consequences are well-recognised complications of cannabis dependence, particularly with the higher potency cannabis now available,” the report said.