Ireland will struggle to cope with mid-30s temperatures
2022, In Heat July Which At 32 Cream 5c Ice Park Phoenix Recorded Melts The In An
Next year will likely be the hottest ever globally if the so-called "El Niño" climate phenomenon returns as expected in 2023, while Ireland's record temperature will almost certainly be shattered repeatedly this decade.
Those are just some of the predictions of Maynooth University climate change professor Peter Thorne, who warned prolonged spells of heat in the mid-30s could have grave implications for human health, livestock, land, and biodiversity in Ireland.
The northern hemisphere experienced the third winter of the La Niña water cooling phenomenon, in a highly unusual "triple dip" situation.
Opposite to the warming El Niño pattern, La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, coupled with changes in the tropical atmospheric circulation, namely winds, pressure, and rainfall.
Even though the northern hemisphere has had three La Niña events in a row, Europe still managed to experience its hottest-ever summer.
If El Niño returns as expected this year, its warming characteristics will significantly ramp up the potential for even hotter summers.
Prof Thorne said the return of El Niño would likely be even more pronounced because of its longer-than-usual absence in recent times.
The massive Tonga volcanic eruption of 2022 will also be a major factor because of the huge amounts of water vapour it sent soaring 10kms into the atmosphere, where it acts like a major greenhouse gas, he added.
Irrespective of El Niño, La Niña, or neutral patterns, there is a "parade of heat records falling" across Europe time and time again, according to Prof Thorne, who was a contributing lead author on the recent UN-backed International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports.
Ireland would not need to reach 40C like other parts of Europe to have major implications on society, he warned.
"Even hitting 33C last summer has major, major implications. Such heat has implications for a large number of people — for farmers managing livestock with heatstroke. It did a number of vegetation, beech trees in particular.
Whether the 33.3C record of 1887 in Kilkenny Castle is truly the highest ever temperature in Ireland, or the 33C reached in Phoenix Park last summer, it is likely to become moot by the end of the decade with those numbers being shattered, according to Prof Thorne.
"If you're going to hit 35C, you're probably looking at a longer duration event. Buildings in Ireland are built to retain heat. Pushing 33C to 35C, the stress that many people feel with the ability to cool their houses will be much worse.
"Looking at records in the likes of France, the UK, and Benelux countries have been smashed recently by degrees, not by tenths of degrees, it is only a matter of time before we break ours.
"I can't say yet if it will be this summer, but I believe it will be shattered by 2030. We won't be arguing about whether Kilkenny Castle or Phoenix Park is the true record by then because they'll both be surpassed.
"It's certainly possible this summer for Ireland to break its temperature record. In a perpetually warming world, heat records are beating cold records far more, some by four to one in some locations."
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