Bread prices set to soar in coming weeks
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Bread prices are expected to soar in the coming weeks as the crisis in Ukraine pushes up the cost of wheat and energy.
But Alex Waugh, director of the National Association of British and Irish Flour Millers, said Ireland’s supply was not currently in jeopardy as the country imports most of the wheat and flour used for bread from the UK, Germany and Canada. Ireland produces very little of the wheat it uses to make bread.
But Ukraine and Russia, long known as the ‘breadbasket of Europe’ account for about 30% of the world’s total wheat output.
Wheat should be sown around this time in Ukraine. But the war, including fierce fighting in the east where much of Ukraine’s wheat is produced, may seriously interrupt global supply.
Since September, wheat prices have increased by about 70%, Mr Waugh said.
And about half of that increase (about 35%) came in the last few weeks.
Soaring energy prices, also a result of the conflict, are also pushing up costs as bread-making requires hot ovens, deliveries and imported goods.
Countries like Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and Egypt import significant quantities of wheat from Ukraine, potentially causing major shortages there, which may lead to more unrest in an already troubled region.
“Prices have really shot up in the last three weeks or so as a result of what’s going on in Ukraine," Mr Waugh said.
"The wheat prices have gone up by a lot and so have other grains that are useful for animal feed. We know about energy prices, fertiliser. All those things have risen as a result of the conflict and that is going to have an impact on inflation and food prices.
Mr Waugh said that although he could not predict by how much bread prices would increase, “inevitably they will.”
He said if Ukraine escapes the invasion relatively undamaged, production could return quickly.
“Assuming there are not mines everywhere and there are people to do the farming, it could recover quite quickly. We’re talking about export markets, there needs to still be the infrastructure in place to load and unload vessels and move the grain from plant to port. The recovery could be quite quick if the damage is not too severe."
He said it was "a legitimate worry" that wheat shortages in the Middle East and North Africa could cause more instability in those regions.
The head of the World Food Programme, David Beasley, recently warned the BBC that the conflict in Ukraine could have a catastrophic impact on the world's poorest, putting more people at risk of starvation worldwide.