Security expert says Ireland can do little to stop Russian naval exercises
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There is little that the Irish government can do to persuade Russia not to go ahead with naval exercises off the southwest coast next month, an expert in international security has said.
The proposed Russian naval exercises are expected to take place in early February in international waters but will still be within Ireland's exclusive economic zone (EEZ).
Following the news of Russia's plan to carry out military exercises 240kms off the Irish coast, Irish fishers announced that they are planning to peacefully disrupt the plans. The Tánaiste has since warned them not to put themselves at risk.
International security expert Professor Andrew Cottey of the Department of Government and Politics at University College Cork (UCC) said the exercises seem to be live artillery drills meaning there would be naval vessels firing live weapons and short-range artillery.
The proposed exercise would not be “unprecedented”, he said, as Russia has been upping its air and naval activity in the seas of northern Europe for the past decade. However, the exercise should be viewed in the wider context of what is going on in Ukraine.
“This gives Nato and the West an extra consideration and complicates their planning for a response to the Ukraine situation,” explained Prof Cottey. It is also possible that Russia is seeking to highlight how Ireland is a weak link in Europe’s air and sea defences, he said.
The naval exercises that are currently being discussed off the Irish coast are part of a wider set of other naval exercises that will be taking place in other seas around Europe.
“But that being said, why Russia is doing this off the coast of Ireland is a bit unclear,” said Prof Cottey.
“One point may be that obviously Ireland, in a sense, is a relatively weak spot in European defences so Ireland effectively has no combat air force and Ireland effectively has no air defences... so Russia may be perhaps just highlighting this.”
In addition, in the context of what is currently happening around Ukraine, Russia may be trying to “disturb Nato” essentially by implying that Nato could face multiple challenges, not just what is going on immediately in the vicinity of Ukraine, Prof Cottey noted.
He added that it may also be a warning to Nato against attempting to intercept Russian naval vessels which are currently being sent from ports in Northern Europe into the Black Sea, though it is difficult to know exactly what is going on.
Prof Cottey noted that the location of the naval exercises is within international waters and so Russia would not be violating any international laws.
“They have also issued warnings of their intention to conduct these exercises, which is the normal practice,” said Prof Cottey.
“As such, there's little that the Irish government could do to try and persuade the Russian government not to go ahead with these exercises."
However, he said one possibility would be for Ireland to expel a number of diplomats from the Russian embassy though even that may not persuade Russia to not undertake the exercises.
He said:
Under international law, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), states are entitled to carry out naval exercises in another state's EEZ.
According to Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney, the Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) was informed of the exercise via standard procedures. Mr Coveney has said that while there is nothing illegal about the drills, Ireland has told Russia they are not welcome.