Russians may have been mapping cables off Ireland since 2014, expert claims
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The Russians may first have started mapping and monitoring the vitally important transatlantic fibre optic cables off the Irish coast as early as 2014, according to an expert in international studies.
Dr Edward Burke, associate professor of International Studies at the University of Nottingham, said the British believe that some Russian 'Bear' bombers have specialist communications systems which allow them keep in touch with their nuclear submarines while they are underwater and they may have been working in tandem mapping out the cables.
He said the British had noted an increase in Russian submarine activity eight years ago and not long after, Russian Tupolov 'Bear' bombers started flying sorties over the same paths as the submarines were using. This led them to believe they started mapping the cables back then.
“They have recee'd [carried out reconnaissance] them, they have known about the cables for years,” he said.
Around 2015, there was an increased frequency in Bear bombers flying down the West coast and around the South-West coast of Ireland, often shadowed by RAF fighters.
Dr Burke, who was born in West Cork, said the positioning of Russian ships over the cables as part of their navy exercise was “a campaign of incremental escalation”, showing they were aware of the vulnerability of the cables and this country's inability to do anything to prevent them being cut.
“Russia realises Ireland's vulnerability is Nato's vulnerability,” he said.
Dr Burke said in his view the Russian decision to initially carry out a navy exercise within Ireland's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) was deliberately done to show their military ability to reach out anywhere and find weak spots in Western Europe, one of which certainly is the undersea cables.
This is a response to the West meddling in Russia's troop build-up on the Ukrainian border, he said.
While the Russians have decided to move their navy exercise outside of this country's EEZ, they might not move it too far and still be sitting over the cables again when the new one takes place “signalling intent and capability".
Dr Burke said Russia also wants to divide EU opinion and its navy exercise is just “another shot across the bows". He said he “absolutely expects” the Western powers such as the US, British and French to monitor the new Russian navy exercise when it takes place.
It is unclear if the Russians will continue with their intended deployment, which included three warships which left their base near the Arctic circle last week – a frigate, cruiser and anti-submarine hunter.
It was expected they would bolster them with a couple more ships, potentially from a fleet currently gathered in the Mediterranean Sea.
The Russian navy currently has more than 100 ships with 10,000 sailors involved in coordinated exercises worldwide.