As news emerges from Siberia of the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, and progress in Gaza continues to be stymied, it is time again to consider whether there are any prospects for hope while Russia and Israel continue to be dominated by their respective leaders.
And the conclusion to that question must be “no.” And it has serious implications for Western democracies, the EU, and Nato in both the short and medium term.
The death of Navalny, 47, who was of Russian and Ukrainian descent, in the Siberian prison where he was serving a 20-year sentence, is another dark episode in the government of Vladimir Putin.
The Federal Penitentiary Service of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District claimed that Putin’s best known critic had “felt ill” after a walk, “almost immediately lost consciousness” and died soon after.
Mr Navalny organised major street protests against corruption and Putin in the past decade describing Russia’s ruling party, United Russia, as a “party of crooks and thieves.” He survived an attempted assassination in August 2020 after being poisoned with the Novichok nerve agent, the same substance used to attack the former Russian spy Sergei Skripal in Salisbury in the UK in March 2018.
Navalny had more than six million YouTube subscribers. He was jailed in 2021 and his terms were twice increased following embezzlement, contempt of court, and extremism charges.
Part of that last sentence, which would have seen him incarcerated until 2038, involved his transfer to the “Polar Wolf” colony in the Arctic Circle which is considered to be one of the country’s toughest jails.
The treatment of Navalny is another indication of the vice-like grip that the Kremlin keeps on opposition figures. A presidential election in March, which is expected to see Putin returned for a fifth term, has already debarred a vocal critic of the war, Boris Nadezhdin, despite him gathering the 100,000 signatures required to get on the ballot.
A speaker at the American Embassy in a debate this week on Ukraine said that what we are witnessing is the unfinished business of the Second World War. After that global conflict one dictatorship was put on trial, while the other, run from the Kremlin, was rewarded by being given half of Europe.
Time will run out for Putin. But it is going to take longer than we might hope with consequential demands on our resilience and resources.
While Benjamin Netanyahu is subject to electoral pressures in a way that Vladimir Putin is not, he has a similar implacability.
While Netanyahu has rejected US suggestions about a Palestinian state saying that it would be a “huge reward” for Hamas, this discussion has to take place in the context of any ceasefire. The alternative is war without end.
After the Six Day War in 1967 in which Israel came close to defeat, a group of foreign politicians were invited to see conditions on the defeated Arab side.
A subsequent article in the London Times stated that “there is a great deal of talk about peace, but none about justice” adding that the circumstances in makeshift camps “vary only from the appalling to the impossible.” Like Russia’s attempts to recreate the USSR empire, the conditions of Israel and Palestine are also the unfinished business of 1945. It will bedevil us for years yet.