Irish Examiner view: Too late for magical thinking at Cop29

Participating countries have been given until next February to do their homework on how they intend to recover lost ground in cutting their greenhouse gas emissions.
Irish Examiner view: Too late for magical thinking at Cop29

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Now that the captains and the kings have departed from Baku — at least those of them who found the time in their busy schedules to attend the Cop29 climate conference — officials and some of their ministers have been left behind to try to make sense of it.

To lean on one of the annoyingly ubiquitous catchphrases of the past few years, “good luck with that”.

Participating countries, unlikely to include the United States, have been given until next February to do their homework on how they intend to recover lost ground in cutting their greenhouse gas emissions.

This means setting new targets for “nationally-determined contributions” to achieve a 43% reduction by 2030 dwindling towards the golden goal of net zero by 2050.

The degree to which the world is off the pace can be judged by the fact that all the commitments already made are expected to achieve a reduction of just 6% by 2030.

Ireland’s target is certain to be missed because the pace of progress has been “nowhere near fast enough”, according to the experts.

What is required, says the Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland, is “unprecedented technology change”, combined with “strong policies and measures to limit growth in energy demand”.

That reference to technology always stimulates high levels of magical thinking, covering a wide range of subjects: agriculture, air travel, car dependency, pedal power, electrifying transport, decarbonising industry, renewables, the grid, heat pumps, insulation...

There is no shortage of blue sky to study. In Japan, it is 60 years since the Tokaido Shinkansen, the famous “bullet train”, made its first journey between Tokyo and Osaka.

It provides one of the fastest, most efficient and iconic railway journeys in the world.

Now scientists and engineers are contemplating implementing a 320-mile automated “conveyor belt road” to manage the burgeoning demand for delivery services in the world’s fourth-biggest economy.

The network will link airports, ports, and rail depots, and tests are due to start in 2027 with a launch date of 2035.

When fully operational, it is expected to replace 25,000 truck deliveries every day.

If that seems like a moonshot idea, developments are accelerating in the UK on the use of robot “lockers on wheels” to make deliveries to households.

International parcel company DPD has already run trials in Milton Keynes with the mini delivery vehicles, which can hold a variety of parcel sizes and carry a maximum payload of 70kg. Whether the robots, known as “Ottobots”, wait longer at your front door than human couriers is unstated.

We can expect to hear much more about such initiatives as the stakes rise in the existential fight against climate change, with temperatures tracking towards an increase of 2.7C, according to latest reports.

Whether Cop29 will make a contribution to restraining that increase is doubtful, and it was sad to see that the Azerbaijan discussions were marked by the withdrawal of the Argentine delegation on the instructions of that country’s new president, the populist Javier Milei.

Argentina was a leading light in previous conferences and its visionary diplomat Raul Estrada is largely credited with the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in 1992.

Its departure, driven by the views of a known Donald Trump admirer, carries a depressing symbolism at the end of a bad week for the environment.

Stark reminder of the rough edges of life

Rough sleeping doesn’t come much rougher than the experience of a woman as recounted by a former lord mayor of Cork, who was concerned about illegal dumping in Cork City.

Mick Finn, who is running as an Independent election candidate in Cork South Central, asked the council to investigate discarded rubbish in Friar’s Walk.

But workmen were shocked to find a woman living in a makeshift camp underneath an upturned ‘Skippo Bag’.

Several black bags of rubbish had been dumped on a green space against the walls of homes near where the makeshift tent was erected.

It was a few yards away from a council bungalow which has been empty for nearly a year.

The woman was put in touch with the local authority’s homelessness services.

Cork Simon says that its outreach team met 577 men and women sleeping rough in 2023 — a 39% increase compared to 2022.

The Dickensian overtones to this story coincide with an election where housing is one of the principal contentions between the parties. We will hear much more on this subject before votes are cast in less than a fortnight.

Repercussions of taking it to the streets

Seasoned observers of mayhem surrounding football matches will be aware that it is unwise to draw conclusions too quickly about the causes, even if the consequences are immediately visible to everyone.

Sometimes the underlying truth, which may be ugly and painful, can take a long time, even years, to emerge.

Thus it is prudent not to make any assumptions about what happened first when Maccabi Tel Aviv visited Dutch team Ajax in Amsterdam for a Europa League club match last week.

Maccabi are Israel’s oldest team, founded 118 years ago. Last season, they were coached to silverware by Ireland’s Robbie Keane, who was subjected to criticism following the outbreak of conflict in Gaza in October 2023.

Then-taoiseach Leo Varadkar defended Keane’s right to work in Israel but he, and his assistant, fellow Republic international Rory Delap, departed at the end of the season.

Maccabi’s opponents, Ajax, are a storied European institution, the team that gave Johan Cruyff his opportunity, four times winners of the European Cup/Champions League. They are also a club with substantial Jewish roots and a significant Arab following.

What started the trouble, which commenced the night before Ajax and Maccabi met and lasted for three days, is a matter of argument. It is recorded that Maccabi fans, or those wearing their colours, were involved in vandalism, highly offensive chanting, the tearing down of a Palestinian flag, and an attack on a taxi.

They were, according to a report by Amsterdam city authorities, targeted by “small groups of rioters... on foot, by scooter or car”. This generated highly emotive commentary including talk of “pogroms”, references to the anniversary of Kristallnacht, and a startling statement from the Dutch king Willem-Alexander: “We failed the Jewish community of the Netherlands during the Second World War, and last night we failed again.”

Holland has implemented a partial state of emergency, increased stop and search powers, and banned demonstrations. The unrest is also the subject of a formal inquiry. But its wider consequences are ongoing, and point to the risks that violence in the Middle East has the potential to spread to Europe.

On Thursday night, when France met Israel in an Nations League match, some 5,600 police and security guards were deployed near Stade de France and on public transport.

Meanwhile, Turkish authorities have opted to switch Besiktas’s home Europa League game against Maccabi to a Hungarian venue behind closed doors.

Since the war broke out between Hamas and Israel, most Western democracies have witnessed thousands of protests. The overwhelming majority of these have been organised on behalf of Palestine and have been peaceful, although many Jewish people say they have felt threatened by them. The weaponisation of language has played a malign role in creating this atmosphere.

Whatever the merits of taking it to the streets, there is the obvious danger of rising frustration when it is clear that the relentless number of demonstrations is having little impact on Benjamin Netanyahu and his colleagues. In this climate, it is deplorably unsurprising that there has been a marked rise in anti-semitic attacks in many countries.

There are political campaigners who want Israel banned from international sport and cultural events such as the Eurovision song contest.

This will not end the war either. Creating further divisions, and embedding them across Europe, will expand hostilities, not bring them to an end.

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