Eamon Ryan at Cop29

It will be a poignant moment at Cop29, which commences today in Baku, for Eamon Ryan, Ireland’s environmental champion.

Until last week, Mr Ryan was the minister in charge of climate action policies for the Government. Now, with the Dáil dissolved and the Coalition’s final Cabinet meeting receding into memory, he is our sole political representative in the oil-rich state of Azerbaijan, where difficult talks are anticipated.

That these will focus on establishing financial arrangements to deliver previously agreed principles on phasing out fossil fuels gives some sense of the scale of the challenge. That Mr Ryan is flying solo while his senior partners, Simon Harris and Micheál Martin, stay at home to concentrate on their party campaigns leaves him in the role of caretaker.

While environmental policies and plans are likely to gather some eye-catching headlines on the hustings, we might expect to hear rather less about the cost to the public and consequences for consumers of the commitments we have made to reduce emissions in line with EU targets. Politicians know that there are votes to be lost there, and their first responsibility is to get themselves elected.

Cop — “Conference of the Parties” — takes place at the end of a year where storms and heatwaves have battered the planet and which is likely to be recorded as the hottest on record, with global average temperatures expected to end up more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. The appalling floods which killed hundreds in eastern Spain at the start of the month projected a haunting image of a climatic Götterdämmerung which is unlikely to recede. Ireland may not be subject to the threat of wildfires, but the future carries predictions of flooding, water stress, and sea-level rises.

The conference will be attended by upwards of 50,000 officials, policymakers, investors, and lobbyists. It coincides with another major event, the Web Summit, which takes place in Lisbon, Portugal. Organisers say this will have more than 70,000 attendees.

Both are impacted by the emerging shape of the Donald Trump presidency when he returns to office in January. His team has already prepared an executive order which will see the US leave the Paris climate agreement which commits countries to cut their greenhouse gases. His predecessor, Joe Biden, signed up to the accord on his first day in office after Mr Trump withdrew from it during his earlier term in 2017.

The Republican victory will also usher in increased levels of drilling, mining, and fracking, including within some areas designated as national monuments in the US.

This is not promising terrain for Cop29 to agree new annual targets for climate financing to replace the pledges set at Cop15 in Copenhagen in 2009. These expire at the end of the year. Mind-boggling annual figures are quoted to meet future needs ranging from upwards of €500bn to €5,000bn.

That there is a mismatch between what the world needs, and what we do was simply illustrated by the International Energy Agency, which pointed out that Africa has the most abundant resources of solar power and wind energy. But, it said, Belgium has more solar panels than the whole of the African continent. 

This is because investors charge more to lend money there and demand higher repayments.

This type of conundrum between capital, and the investment required, to reach net zero is precisely the type of dilemma that Mr Ryan and those who support his views struggle to resolve. He is not everyone’s cup of tea, and nor should he be when many of the counter measures his party proposes are likely to make life less convenient and more expensive for citizens. But he can be given great credit for helping to elevate environmental awareness from a fringe “it will never happen here” topic, into the mainstream.

This week, Mr Ryan is our flagbearer for the last time. He may be stepping back to concentrate on his family, but it is unlikely that his contribution and influence will disappear from Irish policymaking. And the strategic objectives close to his heart will become more, not less, important.