Stakes get higher in Russia's war of words

Western democracies face a classic dilemma this week in their tortuous relationship with Vladimir Putin. And it is familiar to gamblers: Stick or twist?

The Kremlin warlord has issued many warnings since his illegal invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, 935 days ago.

At the start of what he described as a “special military operation” — in fact, the biggest attack by one state against another in Europe since the Second World War — he warned of “consequences such as you have never seen in your entire history” for any potential intervention, while boasting of the potency of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. 

Now, in a more direct threat, Mr Putin says that allowing Ukraine to use long-range Western weapons, such as Storm Shadow missiles, jointly produced by the UK, France, and Italy, would mean that countries in the Nato mutual-defence alliance are “at war with Russia”. 

Even by his bellicose standards, this is a ramping-up of rhetoric. Thus far, he has not followed up with any kind of conventional attack against Western defence forces. The question taxing the best strategic minds in The White House, Downing Street, the Elysée Palace, and the Federal Chancellery is whether this time is different.

Mr Putin has dropped any reference to ‘special military operations’ and now talks openly of war in Ukraine.

The lifting of restrictions on long-range Western weapons was top of the agenda when the British prime minister, Keir Starmer, travelled to Washington for discussions with the US president, Joe Biden. The visit was marked by Moscow’s announcement of the expulsion of six British diplomats.

While the risks are high for the West, there are difficulties for the Russians. Another mobilisation will be unpopular domestically, which is why Mr Putin’s army’s ranks are being swollen with released convicts. Shortages in hardware are being filled by North Korea and Iran. Setbacks in Kursk may not possess strategic impact, but they have delivered an important reputational message to the world and to Russians.

For this reason, Mr Putin may turn to proxy states, organisations, and criminals to asymmetrically target those countries that he deems to be aiding Kyiv. This would mean cyber war and terrorist attacks, rather than a conventional military encounter.

In the UK, Prince William took the opportunity of an RAF graduation ceremony to warn new officers that we “live in a time of change and uncertainty”. He noted that each graduate would soon play an important role in defending their country. 

The Putin calculation is, and always has been, that Russia will outlast Western resolve and Ukrainian resources. This attritional approach will bring him the victory he not only craves but now needs.

We may yet witness an escalation before there is any reason to contemplate de-escalation. But we can be sure that in the war of words, the stakes have grown much higher.