Irish Examiner view: Budget date may signal an early election
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At this point in the life-cycle of a government, every announcement is scanned and parsed ruthlessly with a view to discerning one thing. Does it tell us anything about the upcoming general election?
The resignation of party leaders, the Cabinet reshuffles, deputies stepping down — all of those pale into significance with yesterday’s development, when we learned that the budget will be early this year.
Finance Minister Jack Chambers told us that Budget 2025 will be on October 1, a week earlier than intended, because of ministerial commitments in Europe that month.
Hardly were the words out of his mouth when he denied that this meant we would have an early election, saying the Government was “absolutely committed” to running its full term. This was echoed soon afterwards by the Taoiseach himself. Simon Harris said the election would be held next year, adding that people were interested in the substance of the budget.
Of course, it is possible to be very interested in the substance of the budget while also wondering about what that means for the timing of the next election.
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Sinn Féin’s finance spokesperson Pearse Doherty said the early date meant September taxation figures would not be included in budget considerations, but he also told Jack Chambers that the timing was intended to “pave the wave for an early election. Let’s be truthful about it. I think you’re taking the public for fools”.
Notwithstanding the protests of the Taoiseach and minister for finance, it is hard to believe that the timing of the next election was not a factor in the decision to hold the budget a week early. It is always one of the main set pieces in the Dáil calendar, but now there is a strong sense that this year’s budget is less main act and more overture for the election.
The posters and flyers have only just been put away after the local and European elections. Will we see them repurposed and recycled in another campaign early in the autumn?
In today’s , Cormac O’Keeffe reports on the shocking conditions in Irish prisons, illustrating the terrible shortcomings of a vital State service.
The inspector of prisons, Mark Kelly, has stated that the record levels of overcrowding in jails are “deplorable” and, if anything, he is understating matters.
The raw numbers are startling. The numbers in Irish prisons exceeded 5,000 for the first time ever on June 20, with 5,002 inmates in cells with capacity for 4,514 people. Another 508 prisoners were on temporary release.
The record was beaten twice last week, with 5,007 inmates last Wednesday and 500 on temporary release, and 5,015 prisoners on Thursday — plus 498 on temporary release.
Violence and overcrowding are creating what Mr Kelly describes as degrading conditions, where “prisoners are obliged to sleep on mattresses on the floor, wedged next to unpartitioned toilets, in the living space in which they also eat and drink”.
This treatment is unacceptable on several levels.
First, no human being should be subjected to such unsanitary, dangerous living conditions. It is appalling that anyone should have to endure these circumstances while in the care of the State.
Second, it is notable Mr Kelly has made his views known to the relevant authorities since taking up his position almost two years ago. He has met the minister for justice, the director general of the Irish Prison Service, and senior officials in the Department of Justice in that time to share his concerns, but the situation is deteriorating rather than improving.
Last, the rise in physical violence in our prisons will have a knock-on effect on the physical and mental health of inmates.
Allowing the levels of violence to rise is a serious dereliction of duty on the part of the authorities and, as noted by Mr Kelly, may show that Ireland is not meeting international standards for the treatment of prisoners.
That alone may lead to serious legal repercussions in the future, and we may come to regret the lack of attention paid to Mr Kelly’s concerns.
Even as we speculate on when the next general election will be held here in Ireland, the UK wakes up on Friday morning to puzzle through the results of one of the strangest election campaigns in living memory.
From the day prime minister Rishi Sunak announced the general election in teeming rain outside 10 Downing St, getting soaked in the process, he and his party have meandered from disaster to disaster.
There are plenty of low points to choose from.
Whether it was Mr Sunak’s early departure from the D-Day commemoration to pre-record an interview, or his memory of going without Sky TV, allegations that a Tory candidate was betting on himself to lose his seat, or flying the Union Jack upside down in TV commercials, the Tory performance has been disastrous.
It has been the kind of election campaign that seems destined to be studied by political activists for decades to come — as a blueprint showing candidates what they need to avoid in order to succeed.
In that context, the unrelenting haplessness of Mr Sunak may be an outlier. His uncanny ability to strike the wrong note reached a strange zenith earlier this week. Asked what he might eat on election night, he said: “I haven’t made dinner plans. My favourite meal generally is sandwiches.”
