Paul Hosford: Is a SocDems and Labour merger a fait accompli?

With Róisín Shortall and Catherine Murphy this week announcing that they step aside as co-leaders of the purple side, is the route to a merger a fait accompli?

The asking of the question itself makes sense. The parties are not massively different in terms of policy or outlook, and three of the Social Democrats six TDs have gained elected office as part of the Labour Party.

However, the question ignores the very existence of Social Democrats and the reasons behind it.

Ms Murphy was a Labour Party councillor from 1999 to 2003 but had previously criticised Labour as “highly opportunistic” and initially rejected the idea of a merger between Democratic Left and Labour. 

Upon leaving the party in 2003, Ms Murphy cited “destructive internal intrigues” and ran in the 2005 Kildare North by-election as an Independent, before losing the seat in 2007 and winning it back in 2011.

Constant critic of FG/Labour coalition

From there, rather than throw her support behind the Labour Party, she became the chief whip of the Technical Group in that Dáil and was a consistent critic of the Fine Gael and Labour coalition.

Her co-leader for the eight years of the existence of the Social Democrats, Ms Shortall has an arguably more terse relationship with Ivana Bacik’s party.

Elected to the Dáil for Labour in 1992, Ms Shortall was made junior health minister in 2011 but resigned a year later over the siting of primary care centres. At the same time, she resigned the Labour whip and would go on to found the Social Democrats with Ms Murphy and Stephen Donnelly in 2015.

And while there are some who believe that the joint resignation was aimed at making a conversation around a merger possible, Ms Murphy was quick to squash that idea on Thursday.

Speaking to her local KFM radio station, she said merging with the Labour Party was not something that was referred to within the Social Democrats and “this is not something we’re considering”.

She said Labour was a party that people “really lost trust in” during the 2011-2016 period.

Her party colleague, Gary Gannon was more forthcoming in declaring his respect for Labour, and he was not looking to jump into bed with them just yet.

“We are very, very focused on growing our own party, very focused on increasing our branches across the country, increasing our councillors and moving towards the local elections and the general election and that is our focus.

“So, while there can be a bit of discussion in the media in relation to this merger, it’s not something that really features in our discussions at all.”

While RTÉ host Claire Byrne reminded Mr Gannon that his party is at 2% in the latest polls, there is no guarantee that adding their polling to Labour’s 6% would automatically make the party a major force in Irish politics. 

In fact, Mr Gannon’s own Dublin Central constituency offers a case in point for the dangers of a merger if it remains a four-seat constituency in the boundary redraw. 

While many expect Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald to bring home a running mate and Public Expenditure Minister Paschal Donohoe — if he runs again — would be safe, leaving one seat remaining. 

The favourites for that seat would be Mr Gannon, Labour Senator Marie Sherlock, and the Green Party TD Neasa Hourigan. It is likely that one of Mr Gannon or Ms Sherlock will take the seat, but the prospects of both taking a seat are slim.

But this point also swings the other way and points to the fact that the two parties as currently constituted are often fishing in the same pond. 

Younger voter base

While the Social Democrats have undoubtedly attracted a younger voter base, many of those willing to give them a first preference are of a generation which fell out of love with Labour and are wary of the Greens but are non-committal on Sinn Féin.

That space — for a socially-progressive centre-left party untainted by the difficult decisions of government — is alive and fertile. Would it be as prolific if it came with the stamp of the Labour Party?

Within the two parties, members are pragmatic about the question and the future potential of a merger.

The Social Democrats point to their eight years in existence and the fact that in two general elections, they have gone from three seats to six and in the four TDs who aren’t co-leaders — Mr Gannon, Cork South-West’s Holly Cairns, Wicklow’s Jennifer Whitmore, and Dublin Bay North’s Cian O’Callaghan — have produced high-profile performers in the current Dáil. 

However, they also acknowledge that retaining all of those seats in the next election is a big ask, never mind adding new seats.

In Labour, which ditched Alan Kelly as leader a year ago for Ivana Bacik, there is a growing sense that the next election will be pivotal for the future of, if not the movement, the brand.

They say that the election will tell what kind of appetite there is for the party, likely nearly a decade clear of its 2011-16 coalition.

Some senior figures say that they are even open to leaving behind the name and history of the party if it meant a broad centre-left movement could be built, but as yet there are no plans to begin merger talks despite both sides accepting that there may be a ceiling on the combined support both can command.

With Ms Murphy and Ms Shortall stepping down, there is a chance for a new Social Democrats leader to have a real run at building the party’s profile before next year’s local elections and a potential general election in the autumn or winter, while Labour will hope that Ms Bacik can nudge its polling closer to 10%.

It is likely both will be given the time to do so, but if the local elections don’t garner positives and the general after them doesn’t herald both parties nearing double digit seats, the conversation will truly begin.

Until then, the questions will be asked and asked. And deflected and deflected.