Paul Hosford: New year, new government — that's just the start of the work

Many people will have been drawing up their resolutions and setting goals over the break. One wonders, then, what will have been contained in the notebooks of Taoiseach Simon Harris and Tánaiste Micheál Martin.

Government formation talks

Come this time next week, the two men will hope to have made decent progress towards an arrangement that is likely to see them swap roles, as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael renew their vows and take on a cadre of Independents to form another coalition government.

Talks are expected to ramp up this week, but sources have said that January 22’s Dáil return may be too early for the election of a Taoiseach, given that any programme for government would need the assent of both party memberships.

Trump is a factor in the timing

However, the date remains a goal for many, given its proximity to the inauguration of US president Donald Trump.

Mr Trump’s second administration is seen as a potential shockwave to the Irish economy, and plans are already under way for a US charm offensive from Dublin, with a keen reminder that the relationship is not all one way.

While much is made of the scale of Irish exports to the US imports — the country accounts for 30% of Irish exports — Ireland is also the ninth-largest source of foreign direct investment from the US, with $295bn spent in 2022.

Having a Taoiseach in place in the days after the inauguration would allow Mr Trump to be among the first calls that the new office-holder makes, an effort to strengthen ties that reached historic tightness under the Biden regime but which face pressure now.

But there is much work to be done.

Independents deal seems imminent

The deal which saw Wexford Independent Verona Murphy elected ceann comhairle in December’s first and only sitting of the 34th Dáil thus far makes a pact with a group of nine regional Independents straightforward. However, putting together an agreed programme for government is not an easy endeavour, even with a majority government.

While Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael ran on a combined record, their respective pitches to the Irish public in November did contain a number of key differences in policy and, while these might seem to be minor, they will take up a lot of the negotiation time as both parties seek to put as much of their imprint on the document as possible.

While these will be sold as “wins” in the media, a term that may induce some eye-rolling, Mr Harris hit the nail on the head pre-Christmas when he said that the programme isn’t just important because it acts as a guidebook for political parties, but becomes almost a bible for senior civil servants and is a roadmap of how the next five years will play out.

Wrangling over policy

While the inclusion of a measure or piece of legislation in the document does not guarantee its passage — look at hate speech laws, late opening for nightclubs etc — it makes the preparatory work easier because government departments know that it is at least being planned.

There will be wrangling on individual issues, such as a key pledge of Fine Gael in the election campaign — the so-called acorn scheme. It would see the government provide between €1,000 and €1,500 into an acorn savings account for newborns, with parents able to top it up by up to €2,000 a year, with 4% interest rates.

It has been deemed a “non-runner” by some in Fianna Fáil, wary of its disproportionate benefits to the well-off.

Likewise, there could be issues with new departmental proposals including Fine Gael’s proposed new Department of Infrastructure, which Mr Martin has repeatedly criticised. He described the proposal as being “half-baked”, with the party preferring to cut red tape within the Department of Public Expenditure to allow for the delivery of projects to speed up.

Fine Gael, meanwhile, will want to see more on plans for a Home Affairs department within the Department of Justice.

The section would work on migration issues as well as dealing with national security and intelligence, but some in Fine Gael have questioned what would happen in the event of major security issues in terms of a chain of command.

Mr Harris has also voiced his concerns about Fianna Fáil’s proposals to decriminalise cannabis for personal use, saying that it would be a red line for Fine Gael and said his position was where “a lot of people in Ireland’s position is”.

After policy, the politics

Then, after the policy, will be the politics. While everyone involved stresses that this is serious work being undertaken by serious people, nobody is blind to the politics.

The first question is the Taoiseach’s office. Fianna Fáil TDs are adamant that its 48 seats to Fine Gael’s 38 means it takes first rotation and, possibly, a longer term.

The remaining 14 Cabinet seats could be split seven and seven under such an arrangement, though some in Fianna Fáil want an 8-6 split to reflect the disparity in numbers.

The support of Independents, and the ascension of one of that cohort to the ceann comhairle’s office, means there is a sense that the remaining eight will be given a super-junior minister’s position — which will ensure a presence at Cabinet — and two junior ministries.

These numbers would allow both Mr Martin and Mr Harris scope to promote from within their ranks, both at senior and junior level, which will be attractive to both, with a number of veteran and rookie TDs to be rewarded.

No third party this time 

But perhaps the biggest question is how do Mr Martin and Mr Harris act without the shackles/protection (delete as applicable) of a third party in government? 

The Greens took a massive backlash in November, with many previous coalition partners happy to see them go, deeming them a restraining influence on rural Ireland. But with no mudguard, how expansive or ambitious will Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael be?

It’s easy to leave the chin out when it’s someone else’s chin — but will there be a tendency to be more guarded, less progressive on issues such as climate and biodiversity without someone to take the electoral fall?

Beyond that, there are acute crises in health, housing, and disability services; economic headwinds; wars across the world; and Ireland’s presidency of the European Commission in the second half of 2026 to plan for.

New year, new government? That’s just the start of the work.