Elaine Loughlin: Simon Harris must choose his own piece on ministerial chessboard carefully
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How will Tánaiste Simon Harris retain the energy required to steer and grow his party through a new coalition?
In negotiating a coalition arrangement, the personal deal cut by the Fine Gael leader will be crucial, who will be relinquishing power, at least on a short-term basis after just seven months at the helm.
The same trappings and attention that come with the office of An Taoiseach are not extended to the Tánaiste's title, everyone wants to speak to the leader not his deputy.
This was evident in Scotland on Friday when Kier Starmer sat down for discussions with both Harris, the caretaker Taoiseach, but more importantly with Martin, the Taoiseach-in-waiting. It was a telling break from the usual protocol which dictates that leaders generally only hold bilateral meetings with their counterparts.
A demotion to second fiddle will undoubtedly take some adjustment, but a creative workaround could allow Harris to continue operating on an elevated stage.
The finer details of the rotating Taoiseach and the Cabinet carve-up are important and will take up countless column inches of speculation and gossip, but Harris must ensure that he chooses his own piece on the ministerial chessboard very carefully.
There are multiple considerations.
Does Harris now focus on rallying the party troops by choosing a portfolio that allows him to travel the country and meet the grassroots? Or does he opt for a job that has the gravitas of an international leader, which would ultimately make the transition back to Taoiseach a little smoother?
One senior Fine Gael source suggested that Martin will have to give Harris whatever he wants, especially since Fianna Fáil has been indicating that it wants control of Justice in the next coalition. As part of this exchange Fine Gael will be expecting an equally weighty portfolio, perhaps allowing Harris to move into Foreign Affairs.
But Martin is a wily and experienced negotiator and will likely be reluctant to provide Harris with the opportunity to outshine him, despite being in a lesser role.
"He was a minister when I was doing the Leaving Cert," said one TD who has served in multiple governments. He added that Martin "hasn't driven himself since 1997" when he became Education Minister and has experience in negotiating multiple coalition deals.
When Martin opted to take up the role of Foreign Affairs Minister in late 2022 many suggested it was the kiss of death for the Cork South Central TD.
The example of former Labour leader and Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore, who was left stranded on the other side of the Atlantic at the United Nations in New York when his junior minister Róisín Shortall resigned, was raised.
Being out of the country on such a regular basis, it was suggested, would allow the disaffected and disenfranchised within the Fianna Fáil party to build into a coherent rump. When the cat's away the mice will play.
Warning of such a move, a Labour source remembered how Dick Spring, while serving as Foreign Affairs Minister in the mid-nineties, “literally would land on the tarmac to go have a row”, with controversies and squabbles erupting when he was either in the air or abroad.
Martin, however, has shown that being Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs does not automatically lead to an erosion of power over the party you lead. Martin's standing has instead been bolstered.
The Fianna Fáil leader has been Ireland's representative around the European table at a time when almost unprecedented attention has been given to global events, from conflict in the Middle East, to the war in Ukraine, the election of Trump in the US and a resetting of relations between ourselves and the UK.
Some in Leinster House now believe that following the path laid down by Martin may not be such a bad strategy. "He’d love to be skipping around Europe," said one Fianna Fáil minister said this week.
Holding the position of Foreign Affairs would allow Harris to remain a strong personality on the European and global political circuit and would see him attend Foreign Affairs Council meetings at a time when member states are ever more concerned about the threat of Russia advancing further into Europe.
This week, senior officials in the Department of Foreign Affairs were speculating that two other Fine Gael politicians — Helen McEntee or Jennifer Carroll MacNeill — could be appointed to the Foreign Affairs portfolio. However, it will be the politicians and not civil servants who make this decision.
One senior Fine Gael source suggested that the Defence portfolio, currently attached to the Foreign Affairs brief, is another area that would allow Harris to be present on the international stage, when increased spending on defence is a priority agenda item for many states.
It would also provide him with the responsibility of dealing with the thorny issue of Ireland's triple lock, an area which, if deftly handled, could secure a political win for Fine Gael.
After holding a series of consultative forums, Martin received Cabinet approval in April to amend Ireland’s triple-lock system.
At the time, Harris said the legislation that would address the current system that stipulates that the deployment of 12 troops or more overseas must have a mandate from the UN, the Government and the Dáil, would not put Ireland's neutrality at risk.
“Whether you’re a neutral state or a non-neutral state, or a military-aligned state, there are real risks in relation to our security right across the European Union,” he told reporters in Brussels at the time.
But having come back with 10 fewer seats than Fianna Fáil, the Wicklow TD may want to focus on ensuring the Fine Gael grassroots remains energised and behind him as leader.
A return to Higher Education, which offered him the opportunity to tour the country and build a backing which ultimately paved the way to his ascension to Fine Gael leader, could be one option in this scenario.
During his stint as Tánaiste, Leo Varadkar presided over the Department of Enterprise, a role which allowed him to lead a handful of trade missions around the world, but which had minimal delivery in terms of media attention or any wider attention for that matter.
Harris cannot do this.
Instead, Harris will have to decide whether he chooses a portfolio that provides him with the time and space to do the domestic rubber chicken circuit; or whether he picks a ministry that offers him an international statesman-like role.