Mick Clifford: We must address threats to democracy
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And so it begins. The next Dáil, the next phase of development in our democracy, state, and society has been conceived at the polls. Today, and over the coming days, the first glimpse of the make-up of the parliament will crystallise. Due to the fragmented nature of Irish politics right now, it will be a bit longer before we find out the composition of the next government.
The first thing to acknowledge at a time like this is how lucky we are in this country. Having the right to vote on who governs is still a minority privilege on the planet. Even within the cohort of countries which subscribe nominally to democracy, there are many who attempt to undermine basic rights. For instance, studies this year by the Global State Of Democracy Initiative show that this year one in three voters live in a country where the quality of elections has declined. It also found that in one in five elections which took place between 2020 and 2024, the losing candidate or party rejected the outcome. The latter, of course, includes the USA, the alleged beacon of democracy and freedom, where in 2020 Donald Trump refused to accept the result.
In that context, the Republic of Ireland is still rock solid. Those who bitch and moan about politics and politicians — and we all do at some point — should always include the caveat that at least we have the unfettered right to do so, and the right and even duty to make genuine choices at the ballot box.
Despite, or maybe because, we have been sheltered from the bitter winds blowing through democracy right now, the campaign for this election was pretty tepid. It never really got off the ground. All parties reported that they met politeness on doorsteps. The coming days will tell whether that was because people simply didn’t want to engage or whether they were keeping their voting powder dry.
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Then there were the issues. The top two constantly expressed were the cost of living and housing. Interestingly, cost of living increases, principally inflation, was the primary issue in the recent US presidential election. Huge numbers of Americans have been hammered by price increases in food and fuel. Their electoral response was that things were better when Trump was previously president so he would represent the best option to tackle the issue. It was a flawed analysis but it worked for Trump.
Here, the cost of living crisis has also been keenly felt but all the indications are that the electorate did not vote on it. One reason for this may be an acceptance that much of the inflation was beyond the control of the government. It might also be the case that here the electorate had nothing to compare the outgoing government with in this respect, while the Americans could tell themselves that Trump’s return would bring back better days.
The housing issue was far more interesting. In 2020, one of the main drivers behind Sinn Féin’s surge at the ballot box was housing. There was a belief among many that the outgoing government had not properly addressed the issue and the opposition should be given a chance.
Since then, there hasn’t been much improvement in housing, but the electorate did not appear to embrace the alternative being offered by opposition parties this time around. Sinn Féin produced a housing policy that was comprehensive, imaginative and, certainly compared to what the civil war parties had to offer, somewhat visionary. Yet it didn’t appear to have serious purchase with the electorate.
The visionary element in Eoin Ó Broin’s policy concerned a new model for affordable housing, which would see the state retain ownership of the land on which houses were built. This would lower the purchase price but also include provision that the house would have restrictions whenever it was resold. In effect, it is an effort to treat houses and apartments not as assets but just as homes.
In a world where so many are locked out of the market, such a policy could be a gamechanger. Fears have been raised that banks wouldn’t lend for such a scheme, but these appear to be politically motivated and groundless.
By contrast, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael continued pumping subsidies into the system to bring homebuyers' purchasing powers up to meet the market costs. There is some evidence that this is inflationary and there is every reason to believe it is just a short-term fix.
The affordable housing model was one of the differences identified by University College Dublin's Michael Byrne between what was being offered by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael on one side, and the opposition parties (along with the Greens) on the other.
Another difference was on renting, with opposition parties proposing to “further reduce costs in the cost rental sector” and “radical reform of the PRS (private rental sector) to strengthen tenants’ rights”. On both these, FF and FG are not proposing any reform.
The rental sector provided the one issue that dared not speak its name in this campaign. As things stand, a growing cohort of people are going to be facing into retirement while still renting. This is a new phenomenon here. Retirement income — both the state pension and private pensions — is based largely on the premise that mortgages have been paid off, or the retiree is in public housing. Unfortunately, in the current dispensation, a growing cohort will not be so lucky.
Nominally at least the State is preparing for costs in areas like climate change and pensions. Yet there is nothing being done to examine how exactly a new cohort of retirees are going to manage to survive on a pension while continuing to pay rental costs.
These structural problems in housing will not be solved by short-term responses. Surely there is a case for a national policy on housing akin to SláinteCare for health. If it is not properly tackled as an emergency then multiple problems will be stored up for the future. Among these is the complete breaking of the social contract in which most people can expect to be able to afford the security and comfort of their own home without it crippling their ability to have a decent standard of living. If confidence is not retained in the social contract there will inevitably be major ramifications for how the State is run, and who is in charge.
Today, as votes are counted, we can celebrate being a relatively vibrant and robust democracy. As can be seen elsewhere, there are many challenges posed to that form of governing today. The next Dáil would be well-minded to consider a cross-party approach to housing to ensure it doesn’t fester and provide an opening for the kind of political entrepreneurs that have managed to erode democracy elsewhere.