Elaine Loughlin: Familiar faces eye return to next Dáil

Voters can be cruel and fickle in equal measure when it comes to elevating or ejecting political representatives. Will they be willing to give their former TD another chance?
Elaine Loughlin: Familiar faces eye return to next Dáil

Age At Get Be Name Recognition On Banking Pat Gallagher: The Will Once He Him Of 'the Line The Cope' Again To Strong File Picture Across 76,

Could 2024 be the year of the pollical comeback kid?

Having failed to retain the presidency back in 2020, Donald Trump believes he can now reclaim the White House in what is a critical election for the US and the entire world.

This side of the Atlantic, a number of high-profile candidates hope they can also make a return to political life after stints away from Leinster House.

It means the next Dáil may include a not inconsiderable number of career-break TDs.

But what does it say about the electorate?

Voters can be cruel and fickle in equal measure when it comes to elevating or ejecting political representatives. Will they be willing to give their former TD another chance?

Timing, circumstance, and unaddressed issues have all been cited as reasons by those hoping to return to national politics.

Past elections have resulted in surprise sackings of politicians who have been dedicated to the communities they serve.

Some have been fired by the public because support plummeted for the particular party they represented. This was seen in 2016 when Labour, coming out of a coalition with Fine Gael, recorded its worst election in its 104-year history, falling from 37 TDs to just seven.

Poor party strategy can also be a factor; running too many or too few candidates in a constituency or failing to manage the vote correctly can be the difference in winning or losing a seat.

Depending on the perspective adopted, politicians are either eternally optimistic or shamelessly assuming to put themselves forward after defeat.

Name recognition and incumbency

For Pat 'The Cope' Gallagher, the timing of a Sinn Féin surge in 2020 resulted in the former Fianna Fáil TD losing his seat. Now, at the age of 76, The Cope will be banking on strong name recognition to get him across the line once again.

Incumbency is usually seen as a considerable benefit to any candidate going into an election, but the exception may be in Donegal where voters have successively ousted sitting TDs, including Pádraig Mac Lochlainn in 2016, Mary Coughlan in 2011, and Cecilia Keaveney back in 2007.

"The one thing that is in his favour is that he is not a sitting TD," one Donegal politician said of The Cope's chances this time around.

Having made a swinging return at local level in June's elections, former Independent Alliance junior minister Kevin 'Boxer' Moran is in strong contention to claim back the Dáil seat he dramatically lost in 2020.

The taxi-driver has been literally working from the ground up, volunteering to paint the railings and lampposts in Athlone and making regular appearances on local radio.

He has made it clear that he is now "in it to win it" in Longford Westmeath.

Constituency shakeups

Another Independent hoping to break back into national politics is Clare Daly,  who is running in Dublin Central having lost her seat in the EU elections.

There is also speculation that former MEP Mick Wallace may run in Wexford, while senator and former attorney general Michael McDowell this week put an end to the rumours by ruling himself out of running.

Another well-known name entering the election fray is Fine Gael's Noel Rock.

Rock has made no secret of his ambition to return to national politics and had been speculated as a possible candidate both to run in June's EU elections and as a replacement for Regina Doherty in the Seanad, neither of which materialised.

It is understood that far-right councillor Gavin Pepper's decision to run in the general election in Dublin North West, while not a defining development, was also a factor for Rock.

Announcing his intention to run, Rock stressed that during his time as a TD, he “fought hard to bring positive changes to our community — and I’m ready to continue that work".

The departure of Social Democrats TD Róisín Shortall also shakes up the constituency.

However, it is likely that Rock will have to take out sitting Fianna Fáil TD Paul McAuliffe to be certain of a seat, with Sinn Féin's Dessie Ellis expected to be safe and the Social Democrats' replacement candidate, Rory Hearne, also in the hunt for one of three seats.

Coveney factor

Fine Gael launched its general election campaign for Cork South Central, with councillors Shane O'Callaghan and Úna McCarthy, and senator Jerry Buttimer set to contest. Picture: Darragh Kane
Fine Gael launched its general election campaign for Cork South Central, with councillors Shane O'Callaghan and Úna McCarthy, and senator Jerry Buttimer set to contest. Picture: Darragh Kane

The departure of long-serving minister Simon Coveney, coupled with Michael McGrath's elevation to the European Commission, has significantly altered the landscape in Cork South Central, a three-seater constituency which has always been a tightly contested battleground.

While McGrath's brother Séamus, a poll-topping councillor, is widely expected to fill the vacated Fianna Fáil seat, Jerry Buttimer will be seeking to take advantage of the Coveney-shaped crater on the Fine Gael side.

Buttimer lost his Dáil seat in 2016 and failed to regain it in 2020, but changed circumstances may this time benefit the senator.

Buttimer is among a number of former TDs turned senators — including fellow Fine Gael member Sean Kyne and Fiona O'Loughlin and Lisa Chambers of Fianna Fáil — who want back into the lower chamber.

Meanwhile, former TD Kate O'Connell and former justice minister Alan Shatter are to run under their own Independent banners, having broken loose from the Fine Gael stable.

The Dublin-Rathdown constituency, which Shatter is running in, will increase to a four-seater, providing a potential opening.

In a direct plea to the grey vote, Shatter's constituency leaflets call for a “political culture that is not ageist", one that "embraces wisdom" and "values experience".

Whether voters are willing to give experience a second chance will become clear in the coming weeks.

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