Elaine Loughlin: Going your own way down the path of political success

Disgruntlement at not being put on a party ticket has, in many cases, converged with an awareness that Independents are now seen as an alternative among the voting public. The result of this convergence will be evident on the ballot papers.

Well-known names, including Alan Shatter and Kate O’Connell, will be running for election this time, but not under the banner of Fine Gael.

Rumours circulated this week that Fine Gael’s EU election candidate John Mullins might also defect to run as an Independent, but this was strongly refuted by the Cork businessman who stressed that he has no plans to leave the party.

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The addition of any candidate on a ballot paper will almost always change the dynamics, especially when it comes to transfers and the sequencing of eliminations — both of which are often deciding factors in who takes the final seats.

An acrimonious split from a political party adds a level of intrigue, and politicians and political hopefuls know that — just like in the world of marketing — a good story helps to sell the product.

The Taoiseach himself has become wrapped up in selection convention drama and disappointment, which has resulted in a very popular party representative leaving the organisation to launch a solo bid.

Former councillor Shay Cullen topped the poll in the Wicklow district during the 2019 local elections, amassing 21.5% of the vote and exceeding the quota on the first count.

But controversially, Cullen was not added to the party’s general election ticket

Instead, councillor Edward Timmins — the brother of former TD Billy Timmins — was selected as Harris’s running mate.

In announcing his intention to run as an Independent after the snub, Cullen appeared to steal a few pages from the Harris script.

“I have the energy, the enthusiasm, and the experience to make a difference to the people of Wicklow. Securing investment and targeted project spend that’s tailored to suit Wicklow’s needs is my main priority for our towns, villages, and uplands.”

He added that his decision to run as a non-party candidate had come after resigning from the Fine Gael party “in light of their convention antics and, indeed, their wider internal party struggles in dealing with on-going claims of bullying and coercion of members countrywide”.

Harris, who boosted the party’s standing since taking over, does not face any sort of threat to his own re-election. As he will be hoping to solidify his leadership by proving that he is a strong vote-getter, the addition of Cullen could now eke into the Taoiseach’s percentage of first preferences and dilute his vote.

Fine Gael is not the only party facing competition from the disaffected.

Fianna Fáil councillor Noel Thomas, who resigned in March over his “inn is full” comment after a hotel due to house asylum seekers burnt down, is now running for the newly formed Independent Ireland party in Galway West.

After leaving Micheál Martin’s party, Thomas ran in June’s local elections and topped he poll in Connemara South

With long-serving TD Éamon Ó Cuív stepping down from national politics, the party had already faced a challenge in the constituency. High profile celebrity candidate Gráinne Seoige and councillor John Connolly have been selected, but the party must be aware that Thomas will be going after what was his traditional Fianna Fáil support base and has made a point of attacking his former party.

“We haven’t had a senior representative in Government for decades — and it shows. Successive governments have failed us, driving our people away from their hometowns and into overcrowded cities. This must change. We need a reset for Galway West.”

In Roscommon-Galway, Fianna Fáil this week decided not to add sitting senator Eugene Murphy to the ticket.

There is now mounting speculation that he could also run as an Independent in the three-seater constituency. It is expected that he will consult with family and friends on this over the weekend.

Leaving the support that comes with a party is risky, but those taking the leap this time around will look to the people who have previously benefited from estrangement.

The Independent vote is a long established one in this country, but has become more pronounced in recent elections with support for non-party candidates now settling at around 20%, according to opinion polls.

It means that, in five-seat constituencies, non-party candidates have a good chance of breaking through and will likely be battling it out for the final seats in many areas against candidates from the smaller parties and second candidates from the larger parties.

Michael Lowry, who not only left Fine Gael but resigned from a high profile Cabinet position amid scandal in 1996, has gone on to retain his seat in Tipperary and has established a strong local machine around him.

He topped the poll in 2020, comfortably reclaiming his seat on the first count with 18% of the votes.

Fellow Tipperary TD Mattie McGrath has also forged a career under his own personal banner, having left Fianna Fáil over the issue of stag hunting

Departing TD Denis Naughton was another politician who continued to hold a seat in Leinster House after he left Fine Gael.

Jackie Healy Rae, the man who spawned one of Ireland’s most famous political dynasties, split from Fianna Fáil prior to the 1997 general election.

Many of these breakaway Independents have gone on to become useful allies of the Government of the day.

Lending their support in crunch votes, they hold significant sway in the Dáil — but still enjoy the freedom of the opposition benches and are not controlled by a party whip. For some, there is life after party politics.