Elaine Loughlin: Can Sinn Féin arrest its long decline in time for the general election?
Damien Negatively Examiner Thinks Recent Mcdonald A Said Sinn Féin 21% The With In
Is Sinn Féin delusional to think Mary Lou McDonald can still become taoiseach after the next election?
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Some 43% of respondents said they feel she negatively impacted the potential of a Sinn Féin-led government, with 21% disagreeing.
But again members insist that she is a “tough cookie” who has the ability to lead the party into power.
After Sinn Féin’s disappointing local elections in June, many within Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael advocating for an autumn election emphasise that waiting until the new year would only give Sinn Féin time to regroup and rebuild.
Their narrative comes with the precedent of 2019, when Sinn Féin had a dismal day out at the locals but, less than a year later, bounced back in the general election to win 37 Dáil seats.
Now, however, there is growing sentiment from some within the Government ranks that the tide is so far out for McDonald, she and her party are now stranded at sea and will not be able to recover ahead of a poll, regardless of when that is held.
Speaking privately this week, Sinn Féin members described the mood in the party as everything from “good” to “flat”, but all wanted to stress that support can and will improve, with one remarking there has been a positive shift on the doors which has yet to be picked up on in polling.
But there is now a widespread acceptance that Sinn Féin could never have achieved 37% in a general election.
“There were people who at a period of time said that they would vote for Sinn Féin, but I don’t know if they were ever people who we could count on, they are likely to be those who would change their vote often,” said one TD.
The source added that a more realistic target is 25%, similar to the support received in the last general election, which the party is ready to capitalise on this time around and turn into more seats through a better candidate strategy than was deployed in 2020.
McDonald was criticised in 2020 for not fielding enough candidates to meet the demands of voters, but the party has again been reassessing and perhaps downgrading its expectations.
In constituencies such as Donegal and even Waterford, where at one point the party were talking about running three candidates, only two have been selected.
Likewise, the party has held off on selecting a running mate for Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire in Cork South-Central and McDonald’s own constituency of Dublin Central has yet to be settled.
In total, the party has officially selected more than 50 candidates, but says that it will be putting forward around 70 across the country with conventions ongoing.
For now, Sinn Féin is still motivated by the possibility of governing the country.
“We really want to be in a position to lead government next time around because it’s exacerbating what we are seeing, there are so many issues that need to be addressed,” one senior member said this week.
“We are not saying it’s going to be easy but it’s something that we will be attempting. We got that level of support before, so it’s attainable.”
Another senior member suggested that, while polls may indicate a gulf between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin, when margins of error are taken into account and when the percentage figures are translated into votes and transfers — which in turn will determine the number of seats — the “numbers aren’t that far apart”.
One TD confidently predicted that Sinn Féin will still come out better than Fianna Fáil and will be battling it out with Fine Gael for the most seats.
An indication that Fine Gael isn’t fully confident that the Sinn Féin threat has fully receded came in a flurry of press releases on Thursday morning which were issued to coincide with the publication of Pearse Doherty’s alternative budget proposals.
The Fine Gael press office issued releases in the names of senators, TDs, and junior ministers, each picking apart a different element of the document, criticising everything from Sinn Féin’s plans on USC, housing, RTÉ funding, higher education, and health.
As Sinn Féin holds its ard fheis in Athlone this weekend, the party will be hoping that its plans to make housing affordable, deliver cheaper childcare, and tackle the cost of living will gain the attention of voters.
In tandem, copies of Eoin Ó Broin’s new housing policy are being hand-delivered into letter boxes by local members, with an aim to reach as many households as possible.
“Sinn Féin is going into this ard fheis ready to fight the general election,” said deputy Dáil leader Pearse Doherty pointing to the many “big ideas” being put forward.
“Sinn Féin would deliver a government that finally puts ordinary people first. That is needed now more than ever before.”
Fighting talk from Doherty, but much more will be read into the body language and mood among grassroots and elected members this weekend.