Elaine Loughlin: Opposition parties must regroup before Harris calls a general election
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A bullish Mary Lou McDonald should have been going into the Dáil instructing the Taoiseach to act on the people’s clear demand for change.
She should have been pointing to the massive surge in support for Sinn Féin and the decimation of the two main Government parties at local level.
She should have been confidently calling on Simon Harris, having lost the confidence of the people, to go to the Park immediately.
The results of the local and European elections do have people talking about an early general election, but it is purely in the context of how the current coalition might take advantage of better than expected results for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil and a poor showing for Sinn Féin.
Ahead of the next poll, whether that takes place in September, October, November, or March — the latter a claim no one is believing but which the three leaders continue to insist is the case — Sinn Féin is not the only party that needs to regroup and realign.
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There are questions around how Independents, who secured a massive 28% of first-preference votes in the locals, might harness that energy at national level.
Parties on the left also need to confront the fact that self-inflicted splintering has weakened its voice overall.
At the other end of the political spectrum, the far right have made small inroads, but again a myriad of groupings make for an incoherent bunch.
The Government is not without its own weaknesses: Fianna Fáil must address its Dublin issue; Fine Gael still has large gaps to fill as a wave of TDs prepare to exit national politics; and the Green Party must ensure the tide doesn’t fully go out in a general election.
Going into last week’s elections, Sinn Féin had slumped to 23% in the polls, a massive nosedive from the peak of 36% exactly two years ago.
In the poll that mattered, the party only managed to achieve 11.79% of first preference votes at local level, which has converted into 102 council seats. It’s a gain of 21, but still doesn’t make up for the wipeout of 2019, which saw Sinn Féin lose 78 local authority representatives across the country.
As ballots were counted last weekend and early this week, TDs and backroom staff, still in shock, were bereft of a proper explanation.
McDonald tried to blame the electorate, who she claimed may have been confused, others suggested that strong Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael incumbents prevented the party from gaining seats.
Questions around the party leader and her visibility in the lead-up to the polls have also been swirling. Arriving into the RDS on Sunday, a downbeat McDonald simply said she was sorry she didn’t do better. It was in stark contrast to 2019, another bad election for the party: McDonald came out fighting, boldly stating that “Sinn Féin aren’t cry babies; we dust ourselves down and we get back at it because that’s what political activism is all about.”
With the clock ticking down to a general election, McDonald needs work at speed to pull her party back up.
In recent days, though, she has stuck with the same narrative of an electorate who still want change.
McDonald and her party will have to realise that a vague slogan that worked in 2020 is no longer appealing to voters four years on.
The election of Labour’s Aodhán Ó Ríordáin to Europe this week is seen by many in the party as a turning point.
But, to gain any real momentum or political ground, left-leaning parties know that they must consolidate or at least co-ordinate. It was a point acknowledged by Labour leader Ivana Bacik at the RDS, who spoke about “collaboration” with like-minded parties.
Having lost his European Parliament seat, Ciarán Cuffe of the Greens name-checked Ó Ríordáin, stating that he was heartened that “committed legislators” had been sent to Brussels: “I think his message was a progressive one, it was a message what we need to do in Europe and what we need to do together.”
A merger of Labour, which has returned 56 council seats, and the Social Democrats, which now has 35 local representatives, is logical but unlikely, at least in the short term.
However, the two parties, along with the Greens and others, should be thinking strategically when it comes to vote transfers and possibly even election pacts.
With four TDs now elected to the European Parliament, elections before Christmas are a certainty.
While a rumour briefly did the rounds that the Government might move quickly to hold by-elections at the end of the summer, around Leinster House this week very few were of the opinion that constituency polls to replace Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, Barry Cowen, Michael McNamara, and Kathleen Funchion will actually take place.
Tánaiste Micheál Martin didn’t manage to stifle a smile when he said: “I like by-elections.”
Of course, there are many reasons for this Coalition, which has continuously stressed the importance of stability, to remain in place to the end of term to ensure delivery on housing and other programme for Government priorities.
Now 67 days in office, Simon Harris is acutely aware that every hour and minute in the job counts. He knows his term as Taoiseach in this Government will be short-lived, going to the country even earlier than he has to is undoubtedly a difficult personal and political decision to weigh up.
At a private meeting of the Fine Gael parliamentary party on Wednesday evening, long-standing TD Michael Creed told Harris that the Government should not wait until March to call the next general election, warning against another winter campaign.
Providing Sinn Féin with the breathing space to regain confidence and public support by waiting until the spring is also a factor to be considered.
Interestingly, while pointing to the positives of remaining in office until next year, Terry Prone concluded, in her column in the 'Irish Examiner', that the political march of folly suggests the “go early” crowd will win.
It leaves Harris with a dilemma: In calling an early election, how do you explain the sudden change of heart of a Government that has been insistent in stressing the importance of serving a full term?
Having circuited the country, visiting summer shows, festivals, and fairs, Harris could easily arrive back to Leinster House in the autumn with a clear message from the people.