Theresa Reidy: Young people are turning away from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael
Their Fine Vote Fianna And Similar That Received Of Gael's Are Also Have Shares, Over These Lowest While 2020, To The Amongst Either Histories Very Parties Fáil
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be back in government together by the early new year.
It’s a good outcome for the two parties after a term in government together.
There was little damage to their respective core votes and, remarkably, Fine Gael is now on the cusp of a consecutive fourth term in government.
But the return to government conceals unpalatable truths about the electoral fortunes of the two parties.
Taking a long-term view, their vote shares, while very similar to 2020, are also amongst the lowest that either of these parties have received over their histories.
Scroll for results in your area
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are in a pattern of variable but long-term decline.
Where once, the combined vote share of both parties exceeded 70%, they will return to the new Dáil with roughly 43% of the national vote.
The decline, which started in the 1970s, was barely perceptible at first, but accelerated rapidly in the last two decades.
This pattern is replicated around the democratic world and called partisan de-alignment.
There are two aspects to partisan de-alignment.
First, many people who had an enduring connection to a specific political party have seen that wane over time.
And second, political party affiliations that transferred across generations within families, have declined sharply.
Children signing up to the political affiliations of their parents is the exception not the norm now.
And the growing share of floating voters explains why election outcomes are often so unpredictable and sometimes vary sharply from the previous election.
Ongoing signs of partisan de-alignment are clear to see in the election result.
Fine Gael secured a couple of extra Dáil seats but in large part these are explained by the increased size of the Dáil.
The ‘Harris Hop’ halted Fine Gael decline but it brought no growth.
The party has a broad geographical basis to its support and is especially strong in South Dublin, but the age profile of its voters shows that it is more popular with middle and older age groups and that it attracts fewer votes from younger cohorts.
In some respects, Fianna Fáil had a very good election, but the age profile of its voters is still troubling.
The party has had a notably older support base at recent elections.
It has twice as many voters in the 65+ age category in comparison to the 18 to 24 age group.
2011 was a critical moment for Fianna Fáil, the economic crash ruptured the party’s relationship with a large group of its voters and accelerated partisan de-alignment.
The party has not been able to re-capture the vast majority of the voters it lost then.
But the situation is complicated.
Sinn Féin and many of the small left-leaning parties have captured the youth vote.
The age profile of both Sinn Féin and Social Democrats voters is the inverse of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.
These parties get twice as many of their votes from younger cohorts.
But it remains very unclear if this age pattern is a temporary outcome of a confluence of political and economic circumstances or whether these parties are creating enduring and deep partisan affiliations with their new voters.
Undoubtedly, younger people feel the political system has not delivered fully for them.
There are a great many high-paying jobs, but housing is a nightmare for many.
Scarcity is causing immense stress and rent has become so outrageous that it is driving significant changes in family formation patterns.
Younger people are living at home for longer and for those that must rent, home ownership is delayed as it can take a decade to save a deposit while paying rent.
The social contract is not meeting the needs and expectations of people under 40.
According to the exit poll, housing was the most important issue in deciding how people voted, it was mentioned by 28% of voters overall, but this figure was 47% for Sinn Féin voters, 50% for Solidarity-PBP voters, and 34% for Social Democrats voters.
It was the most important issue for 17% of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael voters.
Young people are experiencing an acute housing crisis and they are voting for parties that promise dramatic change.
The evidence is mixed on whether these age-based effects will persist.
Sinn Féin support is not resilient, it has declined sharply from its polling highs in the mid-30s during 2022, is down nearly three percentage points on its 2020 general election result, and the party had a very poor showing in the June local elections.
The Social Democrats are on an upward trajectory but they remain untested in serious roles.
These parties might be benefiting from the current crisis, but worldwide patterns of partisan de-alignment suggest that they too will struggle to retain their new supporters.
2024 might have brought less volatility than the elections in 2011, 2016, and 2020 but it is likely to be a temporary reprieve.