Elaine Loughlin: Three-party deadlock means it'll be a long road to forming a government

Election 2024: With less than two percentage points separating Sinn Féin, Fine Gael, and Fianna Fáil in the exit poll, a coalition of four or more parties could well be the only option
Elaine Loughlin: Three-party deadlock means it'll be a long road to forming a government

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Deadlock only means one thing: A long, protracted and possibly painful lead into the next government.

With Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and Sinn Féin coming out of this general election on almost identical support, the make-up of the next coalition could be determined by the lengthy battles for the final seats that will ensue in the coming days.

An exit poll indicates that Sinn Féin has received 21.1% support, closely followed by Fine Gael on 21% and Fianna Fáil on 19.5%.

Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin would have been hoping to do better while Simon Harris, whose party was dogged by a number of mini campaign controversies, will be pleased.

Later seats could change power balance 

But the power balance between Martin, Harris, and Mary Lou McDonald could shift substantially when the fourth and fifth seats are eventually filled across 43 constituencies.

Many of these marginal seats have been added in areas across the country, and with 14 more places up for grabs, transfers and the sequencing of eliminations will therefore be crucial.

Ahead of Friday's vote, both the Taoiseach and the Tánaiste had warned of an instability that would come with a coalition made up of four or more parties. However, given the exit poll numbers this may now be the only option.

Polling day was significant for Social Democrat leader Holly Cairns who saw her own family increase by one as she welcomed her daughter into the world in Cork University Maternity Hospital (CUMH).

Her political family in Leinster House is now also on track to swell its numbers.

Smaller parties

The exit poll puts the Social Democrats top of the group of smaller parties on 5.8%.

However, both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael members have been privately dismissing any coalition with the Social Democrats.

One senior Fine Gael source criticised the group as being "too idealistic" which would make them a "nightmare to deal with" in agreeing a programme for government.

Another Fianna Fáil member suggested that the Social Democrats don't appear to be "serious" about entering government, an excuse often put forward if a party simply isn't interested in doing a deal with another group.

Ivana Bacik's Labour party, which the two main parties had been making advances towards ahead of the vote, is on 5%.

The Green Party has not suffered a complete wipeout and is on 4%. Roderic O'Gorman may therefore be included in post-election government wrangling, based on initial numbers.

It must be pointed out that last time time around the exit poll failed to fully pick up on the surge of support for Sinn Féin, so there still remains room for surprise, especially in areas where constituency boundaries have changed or an extra seat has been added.

But a further fragmentation within Leinster House is now on the cards.

 

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