Paul Hosford: Fine Gael slogan will not resonate with some voters
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In the 2016 general election, Fine Gael banked on a strategy and a slogan.
Across the country, posters emblazoned with the Taoiseach Enda Kenny urged the country to "Keep the Recovery Going". After five years of swingeing cuts and harsh austerity, the slogan proved to be a disaster.
While Fine Gael was happy to run on its record, the recovery had not been felt in large part of the economy.
In the end, the party was punished by voters, many of whom felt the branding did not reflect their reality. The party lost 26 seats and was forced into a confidence and supply agreement with Fianna Fáil, propped up by the ragtag Independent Alliance.
This time around, the party is not as explicit, but its slogan, "Securing Your Future", certainly harks to the same intent and Fine Gael has put itself out there as the party of stability, the party of fiscal prudence, and the party of the future.
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In the final days of the 2024 general election campaign, the party has pivoted away from a focus on Simon Harris's "new energy" and gone back to basics on the economy. More importantly and more pointedly, it is focusing on Sinn Féin's inability, as it sees it, to run the economy.
But much of what is read into both slogans comes from the idea that everyone is feeling the financial improvement in the country in the same way, which we know is just not true.
In September, a new report published by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) showed that material deprivation rose in Ireland from 17.7% in 2022 to 20.1% in 2023, for those aged under 18. This means that 230,000 children in Ireland are currently estimated to experience what is classed as material deprivation.
That is an increase of 30,000 children in just a year. This rise comes amidst a 3% decline in the average disposable income of households with children.
Material deprivation is defined as the share of individuals unable to afford two or more from a list of 10 essential items. These items are not luxuries. They include strong shoes, an overcoat, meat or fish in a meal every second day.
In contrast, for those aged over 65, material deprivation fell in the same period from 11.7% to 9.8%. This group also saw their real disposable incomes rise by 3% boosted by a rise in income from higher employment rates due to later retirements.
The report from economist Barra Rowntree, who has run the rule over all of the major parties' spending plans in this election, also found that after a decade of uninterrupted growth, inflation has left disposable incomes lower than it was two years earlier across the population as a whole.
It also found that when housing costs are accounted for, rates of child poverty have increased in recent years from 20% in 2020 to 22% in 2023. What is the impact here?
We know that there are people in our society who have less, who earn less, who take home less. But what the ESRI report found was that those experiencing a low income or material deprivation are less likely to be engaged in civic participation and less likely to have been involved in formal or informal volunteering or political activity in the last 12 months.
So we will this week have a party which tells people that its economic future must be protected. But what of those who aren't feeling like their economic present has been protected?
Last week, children's charity Barnardos reported that 2,000 vulnerable children and families are currently on its waiting list for help combatting child poverty and other traumas. The charity ran a deficit last year of €0.7m as demand for its services rose. The same year, the exchequer ran an €8.3bn surplus.
Fine Gael's management of the Irish economy over the last 13 years has been solid, there is no question. The country rebounded from the financial collapse quicker than expected and now runs large surpluses off the back of windfall taxes from a concentration of large companies.
But asking for faith now from people who feel they have been left behind from the two largest periods of Irish prosperity could be an ask too far, regardless of how well you frame the threat of the opposition.
Fine Gael on Wednesday released a Christmas-themed video of lights going off in the event of a Sinn Féin government. But there are people who will not see that as a risk, given that they have been left in the darkness for so long.